Eugenio Suárez (CIN) reached 1,000 career RBI.
Nightly briefing
Who is chasing baseball history right now — and whether the numbers say they can get there.
Baseball last night
The Seattle Mariners hung 19 runs on the Athletics (19-1) — a 18-run margin.
Weston Wilson (SEA) went 5-for-6 — five-hit games happen roughly 20 times a season.
Francisco Lindor (NYM) hit a grand slam.
Randal Grichuk (CWS): his go-ahead home run in the 9th put the White Sox ahead for good in a 6-5 win over the Cardinals.
▶ Randal Grichuk's go-ahead two-run home run (13)Nick Madrigal (TB): his tiebreaking sacrifice fly in the 7th put the Rays ahead for good in a 3-2 win over the Astros.
On the mound
Velocity watch
Clay Holmes (CHC): his sinker averaged 92.7 mph, compared with 93.4 over the previous 5 tracked dates and 93.4 across earlier tracked dates this season. 0 of 42 measured pitches of that type reached 100 mph (0%). That pitch type accounted for 42% of today's measured pitches.
Brady Singer (CIN): his sinker averaged 90.3 mph, compared with 91.1 over the previous 5 tracked dates and 91.3 across earlier tracked dates this season. 0 of 55 measured pitches of that type reached 100 mph (0%). That pitch type accounted for 58% of today's measured pitches.
Daniel Espino (CLE): his four-seam fastball averaged 98.5 mph, compared with 98.7 over the previous 5 tracked dates and 98.7 across earlier tracked dates this season. 0 of 18 measured pitches of that type reached 100 mph (0%). That pitch type accounted for 69% of today's measured pitches.
The season in progress
The chases that matter
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) has 41 home runs and 36 steals. He needs 4 more stolen bases for 40/40. Model estimate: 35%, using 20,000 simulated finishes.
Full chase →CJ Abrams (WSH) has 30 home runs and 29 steals. He needs 1 more stolen base for 30/30. Model estimate: 82%, using 20,000 simulated finishes.
Full chase →AL Triple Crown: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) leads AVG at .310, 2 behind in HR (Junior Caminero), 3 behind in RBI (Pete Alonso). Model estimate of leading or sharing all three titles: 9% against the 79-hitter modeled field.
Full chase →NL Triple Crown: Sal Stewart (CIN) .048 behind in AVG (Luis Arraez), 13 behind in HR (Kyle Schwarber), leads RBI at 107. Model estimate of leading or sharing all three titles: under 1% against the 85-hitter modeled field.
Full chase →Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) leads baseball in WAR (MLB) at 9.9, on pace for 10.7 over 162 games with 13 of his club's games left.
Full chase →Probabilities are experimental model estimates. Playing time and future rates are uncertain; the joint club and Triple Crown models have not been backtested. Full methods and assumptions are on the linked watch pages.
More from last night · full recap and scoreboard
Eugenio Suárez reached 1,500 career hits. And it wasn't alone: Eugenio Suárez reached 1,000 career RBI.
Overnight: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) added 2 strikeouts. Schwarber has struck out 210 times, projecting to 228. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (44) — one every 12.2 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
The Padres have won 6 straight, and are 7-3 in their last 10.
The so-what: CJ Abrams (WSH) is on a 30/30 pace — 30 HR and 29 SB, projecting to 32/31. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Neither half carries it alone; the season has to finish on both.
HISTORY LAST NIGHT: Emmanuel Rodriguez made his MLB DEBUT and went 1-for-4 and homered — and homered in his FIRST MLB AT-BAT ▶︎ watch.
Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.17 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.66 strikeouts per nine innings, 7th.
What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.8% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 77 in 651 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 26 in 145 this season; Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.8% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 110 in 483 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 489 this season). 4 of 798 rate comparisons across 155 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.
Went deep more than once: Francisco Lindor hit 2 home runs, driving in 5 ▶︎ watch.
Lines of the night: CJ Abrams (WSH) stole his 29th base — with 30 home runs banked, he is one steal from a 30/30 season; Francisco Lindor hit a grand slam — and hit 2 home runs, driving in 5 and led off the game with a home run — his 3rd since July 12 ▶︎ watch; The Seattle Mariners hung 19 runs on the Athletics (19-1) — a 18-run margin; Weston Wilson went 5-for-6 — five-hit games happen roughly 20 times a season ▶︎ watch; Randal Grichuk's go-ahead home run in the 9th put the White Sox ahead for good in a 6-5 win over the Cardinals ▶︎ watch.
The chases moved: Bryan Baker recorded 1 save (40 for the season); Otto Lopez (MIA) had 2 hits (179 for the season) — Batting Average, at .310; Mason Miller recorded 1 save (36 for the season); James Wood (WSH) scored 1 run (102 for the season); Sal Stewart (CIN) had 1 hit — Triple Crown (NL), at .268/31/107; Bryan Reynolds (PIT) scored 1 run (100 for the season); Wilyer Abreu (BOS) hit 1 double (36 for the season).
Also last night: Ben Malgeri's tiebreaking bases-loaded walk in the 8th put the Tigers ahead for good in a 11-7 win over the Rockies ▶︎ watch; Ian Seymour struck out 10 over 6.0 IP ▶︎ watch; Spencer Miles has not allowed a run in his last 12 innings.
Elsewhere on the card: WSH beat LAA 6-5 (Keibert Ruiz, 3 hits); TOR beat BAL 7-3 (Alejandro Kirk, 2 hits, 1 home run, 3 RBI); SD beat SF 7-6 (Drew Gilbert, 2 hits, 1 home run, 2 RBI); MIL beat CIN 13-9 (Garrett Mitchell, 4 hits, 1 home run, 4 RBI); MIA beat LAD 4-3 (Griffin Conine, 3 hits); CHC beat PIT 4-3 (Pedro Ramírez, 2 hits, 1 home run); BOS beat KC 5-1 (start: Ranger Suarez, 7 innings, 1 run, 8 K); ATL beat PHI 12-2 (Michael Harris II, 4 hits, 1 home run, 3 RBI); TEX beat AZ 6-2 (Wyatt Langford, 2 hits, 1 home run).
Milestones reached last night: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) reached 40 SB.
13.17
strikeouts per nine
Jacob Misiorowski · MIL
236 K in 161.1 IP · 27 starts
The season's pitching story, still running: Jacob Misiorowski has struck out 13.17 per nine innings through 161.1 innings and 27 starts, the best rate among the 50 qualified starters on tonight's board. Four of the 7,102 full-schedule qualified starter seasons the AL and NL have played since 1920 have finished a full schedule above it: Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019, Spencer Strider's 13.55 in 2023, Randy Johnson's 13.41 in 2001 and Pedro Martinez's 13.20 in 1999. Above them on a short schedule: Shane Bieber's 14.20, over the 77.1 innings of 2020 and Jacob deGrom's 13.76, over the 68.0 innings of 2020. Unchanged from a night ago.
- 14.20 Shane Bieber, 2020 (short schedule — 77.1 IP)
- 13.82 Gerrit Cole, 2019
- 13.76 Jacob deGrom, 2020 (short schedule — 68.0 IP)
- 13.55 Spencer Strider, 2023
- 13.41 Randy Johnson, 2001
- 13.20 Pedro Martinez, 1999
- 13.17 Jacob Misiorowski, this season so far
Sampling error on a rate over 161.1 innings is about 0.86.
Batter Strikeouts
NEGATIVE HISTORY
Kyle SchwarberPHI
Kyle Schwarber is on pace for 228 strikeouts
Mark Reynolds struck out 223 times in 2009, a mark that has survived the highest-strikeout era in history.
98History score
- Current
- 210
- Projected
- 228
- Record
- 223 Mark Reynolds, 2009
Fastest Pitch89
Jacob Misiorowski
Record 105.8 · Aroldis Chapman, 2010
Jacob Misiorowski's 105.5 mph 4-Seam Fastball on June 26 is the fastest pitch of 2026.
Longest Ball79
Fernando Tatis Jr.
A 474-foot home run on July 21 — the longest ball of the season.
Team Wins78
BrewersMIL
101 projectedRecord 116 · 1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners
7 wins from a 100-win season.
Hardest-Hit Ball78
Oneil Cruz
Record 122.4 · Giancarlo Stanton, 2017
A 119.0 mph double on April 16 — Stanton's tracked record is 122.4.
The AL Central is tightening. The White Sox still lead, but the Guardians have cut the deficit from four and a half games to one and a half games since August 29.
The Tigers have been better than 69-79 looks: their runs scored and allowed are those of a 81-win club.
Pace through history
A
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 44 home runs through 149 team games, 20 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (64). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46 (95% CI 45-47); 3.6% reached 50 (1.4-8.8% at 95% confidence), from 112 comparable seasons.
Franchise pressure
A
A franchise record is under pressure
The Rays' single-season record is 198 hits, set by Aubrey Huff in 2003. Yandy Díaz projects to 187 and would finish 11 short.
The environment matters
A
This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate
MLB teams are averaging 8.36 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2025. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.
Historical season twin
A
Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (86% similarity). The match is strongest in average, speed, hit volume; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
Under the surface
Deep signals
ICE
Bradgley Rodriguez · 17 straight scoreless IP Hershiser's record is 59
QSCade Cavalli · 8 straight quality starts A durability signal worth tracking
droughtSal Stewart has 31 home runs — and none in 14 games. That is the longest quiet stretch of his season.
pace surgeSurging: Rafael Devers has pushed his RBI pace from 88 to 107 and his home run pace from 33 to 40 in three weeks — 28 and 11 in 19 games where his own rate predicted 10.3 and 3.8. One of 69 pace comparisons run tonight.
Tonight's stakes
What to watch today
CJ Abrams (WSH) needs 1 stolen base for a 30/30 season; he has 30 home runs and 29 steals. Next scheduled opponent: Los Angeles Angels.
How to read the site
The chase, in plain English
No one is chasing .400 this season; the season log has the date it closed. Luis Arraez leads MLB at .316.
Every chase gets a 0–100 History Score against the record book, allowing home-run pace, streaks, Statcast extremes, and even negative history to share one radar.