The Hot Stove. No games tonight. Below is the season that was — every chase at its final resting place.
Nightly briefing
Who is chasing baseball history right now — and whether the numbers say they can get there.
Baseball last night
Chandler Simpson (TB) took over the stolen bases lead at 46, passing Nasim Nuñez (WSH).
No club in baseball has been hotter: the Brewers have won 22 of their last 30, 2 clear of the next club among the 30 with 30 games played. At its peak the run reached 23-7. Calvin Faucher has now thrown 20.1 straight scoreless innings — Hershiser's 59 is the mountain.
Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 12.98 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.73 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.
Also last night: Aroldis Chapman has 402 career saves — 7th of 46, counting the 25 closed careers on the all-time list and the 21 active players on our boards. Billy Wagner (422) is next, 21 away; Chris Sale (ATL) has 2,764 career strikeouts — 24th of 82, counting the 25 closed careers on the all-time list and the 57 active players on our boards. Frank Tanana (2,773) is next, 10 away.
What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.7% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 83 in 709 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 27 in 158 this season; Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.5% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 120 in 533 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 498 this season). (5 more cleared the same bar.) 9 of 780 rate comparisons across 150 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has 45 home runs through 162 team games, a 45-homer pace — 28 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (73 of his eventual 73). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
The Tigers have been better than 76-86 looks: their runs scored and allowed are those of a 89-win club.
The Angels have been better than 62-100 looks: their runs scored and allowed are those of a 71-win club.
Pace through history
A
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 45 home runs through 162 team games, 28 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (73). Comparable chases finished with a median of 45 (95% CI 45-46); 0% reached 50 (0-2.8% at 95% confidence), from 134 comparable seasons.
Franchise pressure
A
A franchise record is under pressure
The Rays' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Peña in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 42 and would finish 4 short.