88% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Shohei Ohtani sits 4th in OPS among 51 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board
His .906 OPS ranks him there against the 51 hitters this site follows who have cleared MLB's 3.1-plate-appearances-per-team-game bar. MLB publishes no top-10 OPS board, so this is a position inside a smaller field, said plainly.
This has been his headline for 5 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- OPS .906 — 4th of 51 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
- 93.2 mph average exit velocity 93.2 mph over 362 batted-ball events — 10th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- 89 8th in runs at 89 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- Average exit velocity93.2mph
- Hard-hit rate51.7%
- Barrel rate15.7%
- Max exit velocity114.6mph
This season only, 362 batted-ball events. Ranked 10th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters — that is a top-of-the-league board, not a league-wide ranking.
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 592 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: vs Washington Nationals.
Every claim above, with its source (3)
- OPS .906 — 4th of 51 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
- average exit velocity 93.2 mph over 362 batted-ball events — 10th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- 8th in runs at 89 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Shohei Ohtani is on the season's hardest-contact board; Shohei Ohtani is top-10 in the majors in runs.
The evidence
What to watch next
vs Washington Nationals
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 10:10 p.m. ET
Facing Andrew Alvarez
Shohei Ohtani faces a left-hander in Andrew Alvarez. He is hitting .272 with 12 home runs in 173 at-bats against left-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 326 | .282 | 18 | 52 | .918 |
| vs LHP | 173 | .272 | 12 | 28 | .882 |
| Home | 218 | .280 | 16 | 31 | .951 |
| Away | 281 | .278 | 14 | 49 | .871 |
| Day | 131 | .290 | 8 | 22 | .960 |
| Night | 368 | .274 | 22 | 58 | .887 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
133G
499AB
139H
.279AVG
30HR
80RBI
11SB
252B
43B
.906OPS
Chasing .400
.279Current AVG
102Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
101-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.271Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (89-for-70)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .279 | .279 | .871 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .279 | .279 | 1.114 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .279 | .279 | 1.271 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .279 | .279 | 1.329 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .279 | .279 | 1.814 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 30 | 34 | 20 in 20 g · 1 per 3.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 30 | 34 | 30 in 20 g · 1 per 2.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 30 | 34 | 32 in 20 g · 1 per 2.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 30 | 34 | 40 in 20 g · 1 per 1.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 30 | 34 | 43 in 20 g · 1 per 1.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 139 | 159 | 61 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 139 | 159 | 86 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 139 | 159 | 111 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 139 | 159 | 123 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 11 | 13 | 39 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 11 | 13 | 69 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 11 | 13 | 89 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 11 | 13 | 119 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 25 | 29 | 25 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 25 | 29 | 35 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 25 | 29 | 42 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 4 | 5 | 16 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 4 | 5 | 21 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 4 | 5 | 32 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 80 | 91 | 45 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 80 | 91 | 70 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 80 | 91 | 95 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 80 | 91 | 111 in 20 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 50.680 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 46.750 after regressing toward the league's 30.150 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 33.2, against a straight team-game pace of 34. Exact beta-binomial over 83 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
1.7%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=665); median finish 33. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 8-13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | .279 |
| 2026-08-31 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .281 |
| 2026-08-30 | Detroit Tigers | W 6-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .280 |
| 2026-08-29 | Detroit Tigers | L 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .283 |
| 2026-08-28 | Detroit Tigers | W 2-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .283 |
| 2026-08-27 | Atlanta Braves | L 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .285 |
| 2026-08-26 | Atlanta Braves | L 5-6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .288 |
| 2026-08-25 | Atlanta Braves | L 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .287 |
| 2026-08-23 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 4-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .288 |
| 2026-08-22 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 4-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .289 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 142 team games; 60 in 2001