Max Scherzer (TOR) reached 200 career wins.
Nightly briefing
Who is chasing baseball history right now — and whether the numbers say they can get there.
Baseball last night
The Milwaukee Brewers hung 20 runs on the Cincinnati Reds (20-0).
Xander Bogaerts (SD) reached 1,000 career runs.
Justin Martinez (AZ) threw an IMMACULATE INNING (inning 6: 3 K on 9 pitches) — immaculate innings (3 strikeouts on 9 pitches) happen about 4 times a season.
Rafael Devers (SF) hit a grand slam.
Garrett Mitchell (MIL) hit a grand slam — his first.
On the mound
Velocity watch
MacKenzie Gore (TEX): his four-seam fastball averaged 94.6 mph, compared with 95.0 over the previous 5 tracked dates and 95.3 across earlier tracked dates this season. 0 of 32 measured pitches of that type reached 100 mph (0%). That pitch type accounted for 42% of today's measured pitches.
Wilber Dotel (PIT): his four-seam fastball averaged 98.4 mph, compared with 98.4 over the previous 5 tracked dates and 98.3 across earlier tracked dates this season. 0 of 18 measured pitches of that type reached 100 mph (0%). That pitch type accounted for 47% of today's measured pitches.
The season in progress
The chases that matter
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) has 41 home runs and 36 steals. He needs 4 more stolen bases for 40/40. Model estimate: 40%, using 20,000 simulated finishes.
Full chase →CJ Abrams (WSH) has 30 home runs and 28 steals. He needs 2 more stolen bases for 30/30. Model estimate: 57%, using 20,000 simulated finishes.
Full chase →AL Triple Crown: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) leads AVG at .310, 2 behind in HR (Junior Caminero), 1 behind in RBI (Pete Alonso). Model estimate of leading or sharing all three titles: 12% against the 79-hitter modeled field.
Full chase →NL Triple Crown: Sal Stewart (CIN) .050 behind in AVG (Luis Arraez), 13 behind in HR (Kyle Schwarber), leads RBI at 107. Model estimate of leading or sharing all three titles: under 1% against the 86-hitter modeled field.
Full chase →Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) leads baseball in WAR (MLB) at 10.0, on pace for 10.9 over 162 games with 14 of his club's games left.
Full chase →Probabilities are experimental model estimates. Playing time and future rates are uncertain; the joint club and Triple Crown models have not been backtested. Full methods and assumptions are on the linked watch pages.
More from last night · full recap and scoreboard
Max Scherzer reached 200 career wins. And it wasn't alone: Robbie Ray reached 100 career wins.
Overnight: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) added 3 strikeouts. Schwarber has struck out 208 times, projecting to 228. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (44) — one every 12.1 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
The Dodgers have won 8 straight, and are 8-2 in their last 10.
The so-what: CJ Abrams (WSH) is on a 30/30 pace — 30 HR and 28 SB, projecting to 33/30. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Power and speed in the same season is the whole story from here.
Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.17 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.66 strikeouts per nine innings, 7th.
HISTORY LAST NIGHT: Xander Bogaerts reached 1,000 career runs; Justin Martinez threw an IMMACULATE INNING (inning 6: 3 K on 9 pitches) — immaculate innings (3 strikeouts on 9 pitches) happen about 4 times a season ▶︎ watch.
The chases moved: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) scored 1 run (111 for the season); Junior Caminero (TB) hit 1 home run (40 for the season); Luis Arraez (PHI) had 2 hits (177 for the season) — Batting Average, at .318; Otto Lopez (MIA) had 4 hits (177 for the season) — Batting Average, at .307; Sal Stewart (CIN) had 2 hits — Triple Crown (NL), at .268/31/107; Bryan Reynolds (PIT) scored 1 run (99 for the season); Alec Burleson (STL) drove in 2 runs (106 for the season) and hit 1 double (35 for the season).
Also last night: Dustin May allowed two hits over 6.0 scoreless innings (6 K) ▶︎ watch; Yunior Marte went 5.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch; Matt Olson (ATL) homered for the first time since August 26, ending a 14-game drought — his 38th of the season.
Went deep more than once: Chase Meidroth hit 2 home runs — his first career multi-homer game ▶︎ watch.
What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.9% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 77 in 647 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 26 in 144 this season; Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 489 this season); Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.5% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 108 in 481 this season). 4 of 802 rate comparisons across 155 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.
Lines of the night: The Milwaukee Brewers hung 20 runs on the Cincinnati Reds (20-0); ONE GAME produced all of it: Garrett Mitchell hit a grand slam — his first; Brice Turang (MIL) drove in 4 runs; William Contreras drove in 6 runs ▶︎ watch; Kyle Tucker hit a grand slam — and drove in 5 runs ▶︎ watch; Donovan Walton's walk-off home run in the 10th beat the Mariners 6-5 ▶︎ watch; Jorbit Vivas' tiebreaking double in the 8th put the Nationals ahead for good in a 4-3 win over the Angels ▶︎ watch.
History movers: Dodgers — Win Streak: 8 now, modern record 22 (Cleveland Indians, 2017).
Elsewhere on the card: BAL beat TOR 7-4 (Brett Bateman, 3 hits, 1 home run, 2 RBI); TB beat HOU 3-1 (start: Drew Rasmussen, 7 innings, 1 run); NYY beat NYM 6-4 (Ben Rice, 3 hits, 1 home run); CLE beat MIN 5-2 (Angel Martínez, 2 hits, 1 home run, 2 RBI); DET beat COL 6-2 (Riley Greene, 3 hits, 2 RBI); CHC beat PIT 12-2 (Alex Bregman, 3 hits, 1 home run, 2 RBI); KC beat BOS 3-2; ATL beat PHI 6-5 (Mike Yastrzemski, 3 hits).
13.17
strikeouts per nine
Jacob Misiorowski · MIL
236 K in 161.1 IP · 27 starts
The season's pitching story, still running: Jacob Misiorowski has struck out 13.17 per nine innings through 161.1 innings and 27 starts, the best rate among the 50 qualified starters on tonight's board. Four of the 7,102 full-schedule qualified starter seasons the AL and NL have played since 1920 have finished a full schedule above it: Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019, Spencer Strider's 13.55 in 2023, Randy Johnson's 13.41 in 2001 and Pedro Martinez's 13.20 in 1999. Above them on a short schedule: Shane Bieber's 14.20, over the 77.1 innings of 2020 and Jacob deGrom's 13.76, over the 68.0 innings of 2020. Unchanged from a night ago.
- 14.20 Shane Bieber, 2020 (short schedule — 77.1 IP)
- 13.82 Gerrit Cole, 2019
- 13.76 Jacob deGrom, 2020 (short schedule — 68.0 IP)
- 13.55 Spencer Strider, 2023
- 13.41 Randy Johnson, 2001
- 13.20 Pedro Martinez, 1999
- 13.17 Jacob Misiorowski, this season so far
Sampling error on a rate over 161.1 innings is about 0.86.
Batter Strikeouts
NEGATIVE HISTORY
Kyle SchwarberPHI
Kyle Schwarber is on pace for 228 strikeouts
Mark Reynolds struck out 223 times in 2009, a mark that has survived the highest-strikeout era in history.
98History score
- Current
- 208
- Projected
- 228
- Record
- 223 Mark Reynolds, 2009
Fastest Pitch89
Jacob Misiorowski
Record 105.8 · Aroldis Chapman, 2010
Jacob Misiorowski's 105.5 mph 4-Seam Fastball on June 26 is the fastest pitch of 2026.
Longest Ball79
Fernando Tatis Jr.
A 474-foot home run on July 21 — the longest ball of the season.
Team Wins78
BrewersMIL
101 projectedRecord 116 · 1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners▲ 1
8 wins from a 100-win season.
The AL Central is tightening. The White Sox still lead, but the Guardians have cut the deficit from three and a half games to half a game since August 28.
The Tigers have been better than 68-79 looks: their runs scored and allowed are those of a 80-win club.
Pace through history
A
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 44 home runs through 148 team games, 20 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (64). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46 (95% CI 45-47); 3.6% reached 50 (1.4-8.8% at 95% confidence), from 112 comparable seasons.
Franchise pressure
A
A franchise record is under pressure
The Rays' single-season record is 198 hits, set by Aubrey Huff in 2003. Yandy Díaz projects to 188 and would finish 10 short.
The environment matters
A
This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate
MLB teams are averaging 8.36 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2025. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.
Historical season twin
A
Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (86% similarity). The match is strongest in hit volume, run production, speed; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
Under the surface
Deep signals
ICE
Bradgley Rodriguez · 17 straight scoreless IP Hershiser's record is 59
QSCade Cavalli · 8 straight quality starts A durability signal worth tracking
drought groupThe power outage is plural: Sal Stewart (31 HR) hasn't homered in 13 games; Ceddanne Rafaela (16 HR) hasn't homered in 12 games. The longest quiet stretches of their seasons are costing them the pace.
pace surgeSurging: Rafael Devers has pushed his RBI pace from 89 to 105 in three weeks — 26 in 19 games where his own rate predicted 10.4. One of 71 pace comparisons run tonight.
Tonight's stakes
What to watch today
CJ Abrams (WSH) needs 2 stolen bases for a 30/30 season; he has 30 home runs and 28 steals. Next scheduled opponent: Los Angeles Angels.
How to read the site
The chase, in plain English
No one is chasing .400 this season; the season log has the date it closed. Luis Arraez leads MLB at .318.
Every chase gets a 0–100 History Score against the record book, allowing home-run pace, streaks, Statcast extremes, and even negative history to share one radar.