n=145 near this checkpoint
Why he matters right now
Sean Burke's fastball has been sitting below his own baseline
His KC has averaged 78.48 mph over his last 3 starts against a 79.84 mph baseline. That is a measured change in the pitch, not a diagnosis of the pitcher.
The case in 30 seconds
- 78.48 vs 79.84 ± 0.66 mph baseline over 15 starts (z = -2.07) stuff-watch gates, calibrated against the season's own variance
Starters with 10+ starts and 300+ four-seamers, 20 of them. Relievers are excluded on purpose: a short-burst arm and a 100-pitch starter are not the same population.
The honest caveat
A measured change is not a prediction. Pitchers give back velocity in August for reasons that range from fatigue to deliberate pacing.
What to watch next
Next up: at Boston Red Sox.
The evidence
What to watch next
at Boston Red Sox
Fenway Park · 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposite Ranger Suarez
Situational splits
| Split | IP | ERA | SO | WHIP | AVG against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 49.2 | — | 58 | 1.11 | .225 |
| vs LHP | 78.0 | — | 86 | 1.14 | .220 |
| Home | 74.0 | 3.41 | 80 | 1.08 | .217 |
| Away | 54.2 | 2.63 | 64 | 1.17 | .229 |
| Day | 49.1 | 2.37 | 53 | 1.01 | .172 |
| Night | 79.1 | 3.52 | 91 | 1.18 | .251 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
23G
19GS
128.2IP
7-6W-L
3.08ERA
1.12WHIP
144K
10.07K/9
0SV
Strikeout chase
| Chase | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 250 K | 144 | 206 | 106 K · 2.163 per team game | EXTREME |
| 300 K | 144 | 206 | 156 K · 3.184 per team game | EXTREME |
| 350 K | 144 | 206 | 206 K · 4.204 per team game | EXTREME |
| 383 K | 144 | 206 | 239 K · 4.878 per team game | EXTREME |
ERA & WHIP finish lines
| Finish | Current | Required rest-of-season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sub-2.00 ERA | 3.08 | -0.48 over ~55.8 IP | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-1.75 ERA | 3.08 | -1.31 over ~55.8 IP | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-1.50 ERA | 3.08 | -2.14 over ~55.8 IP | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-1.00 WHIP | 1.12 | 0.72 | EXTREME |
| Sub-0.90 WHIP | 1.12 | 0.40 | EXTREME |
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Stuff watch
Four-seamer velocity, start by start
Every start's average against his own trailing baseline of 95.1 ± 0.76 mph. Ringed dots sit more than one standard deviation under the baseline; last start 95.22 mph (2026-08-05).
- velocity · KC: 78.48 vs 79.84 ± 0.66 (z -2.07, 3 straight)