Historic Chases · 2026-05-04 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-04

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Ryan Vilade hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 19 ▶︎ watch; Michael Conforto hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 18 ▶︎ watch.

Matt Olson has 15 doubles — projecting to 68, +0 vs Earl Webb's 67 pace. That pace would be the most doubles in any season since 1901. Needs 35 more to reach 50.

Ildemaro Vargas sits at .382 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

History movers: Matt Olson, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 12 now, pace 54, record 51 (Andruw Jones) · Liam Hicks — Franchise RBI: 29 now, pace 134.2, record 132 (Giancarlo Stanton); RBI: 29 now, pace 134, record 191 (Hack Wilson).

The so-what: through 35 team games, Aaron Judge sits 2 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (16 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

MUST TRACK: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 9 HR / 11 SB, projecting to 42/51. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Every game matters from here.

The .400 burndown: Ildemaro Vargas carries a .382 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .406 clip the rest of the way (162-for-399). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .403; an 0-for-4 raises it to .410.

On this date in 2018, 4 Dodgers pitchers combined for a no-hitter.

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 9 HR / 11 SB — 21 homers short and 19 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 42/51.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Aaron Judge versus the great home-run seasons

Aaron Judge has 14 home runs through 35 team games, 1 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (15). Comparable chases finished with a median of 39; 11.9% reached 50 and 2.7% reached 60 (n=185).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-1 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 250, it would be the most batter strikeouts in any season since 1901 — no season on record has finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 135 RBI, set by Eddie Mathews in 1953. Drake Baldwin projects to 135 and projects to tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Aaron Judge is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Aaron Judge would reach at least 60 HR, and 125 RBI. Only 8 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001), Mark McGwire (1999).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400