Playoff hunt
A standings table says who is ahead. It does not say who is in trouble, who is making a run, or which lead has quietly stopped being safe. Every number here is measured against this site's own archive — 14 days back, night by night — so a four-game gap that was nine a fortnight ago reads as the story it is.
Tonight
Ranked by how much a reader should care, not by which check ran first: how tight the race is, how far the ground moved, and how little season is left.
The Tigers have been better than 76-86 looks: their runs scored and allowed are those of a 89-win club.
The Angels have been better than 62-100 looks: their runs scored and allowed are those of a 71-win club.
The Giants have been better than 65-97 looks: their runs scored and allowed are those of a 72-win club.
The Rays have won more than their runs suggest — 98-64 against the 90 wins their scoring has earned.
The Reds have won more than their runs suggest — 75-87 against the 65 wins their scoring has earned.
The cut line
Every club measured against the last playoff place rather than the top of the table, because that is the position the race is actually for.
Measured at the last wild card place. The White Sox hold it by four games.
| Club | W–L | To the cut | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYY Yankees | 93–68 | +9.5 | 0.0 |
| BOS Red Sox | 87–75 | +3.0 | 0.0 |
| CWS White Sox | 84–78 | — | 0.0 |
| TEX Rangers | 80–82 | -4.0 | 0.0 |
| BAL Orioles | 79–82 | -4.5 | 0.0 |
| TOR Blue Jays | 79–83 | -5.0 | 0.0 |
A plus sign is a club holding a place. Division leaders are not on this ladder — they are already in.
Measured at the last wild card place. The Phillies hold it by two games.
| Club | W–L | To the cut | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD Padres | 91–71 | +3.0 | 0.0 |
| CHC Cubs | 89–73 | +1.0 | 0.0 |
| PHI Phillies | 88–74 | — | 0.0 |
| AZ D-backs | 86–76 | -2.0 | 0.0 |
| PIT Pirates | 82–80 | -6.0 | 0.0 |
A plus sign is a club holding a place. Division leaders are not on this ladder — they are already in.
Six races
Sorted by compression. A division nobody is within six games of scores near zero however many clubs it has.
The Astros lead by one game.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU Astros | 81–81 | — | 0.0 |
| TEX Rangers | 80–82 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| SEA Mariners | 76–86 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
| ATH Athletics | 64–98 | 17.0 | — |
| LAA Angels | 62–100 | 19.0 | — |
The Guardians lead by one game.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE Guardians | 85–77 | — | 0.0 |
| CWS White Sox | 84–78 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| MIN Twins | 77–85 | 8.0 | — |
| DET Tigers | 76–86 | 9.0 | — |
| KC Royals | 69–93 | 16.0 | — |
The Rays lead by four and a half games.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB Rays | 98–64 | — | 0.0 |
| NYY Yankees | 93–68 | 4.5 | 0.0 |
| BOS Red Sox | 87–75 | 11.0 | — |
| BAL Orioles | 79–82 | 18.5 | — |
| TOR Blue Jays | 79–83 | 19.0 | — |
The Braves lead by six games.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL Braves | 94–68 | — | 0.0 |
| PHI Phillies | 88–74 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
| MIA Marlins | 80–82 | 14.0 | — |
| WSH Nationals | 77–85 | 17.0 | — |
| NYM Mets | 74–88 | 20.0 | — |
The Brewers lead by 14 games.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL Brewers | 103–59 | — | 0.0 |
| CHC Cubs | 89–73 | 14.0 | — |
| PIT Pirates | 82–80 | 21.0 | — |
| STL Cardinals | 77–85 | 26.0 | — |
| CIN Reds | 75–87 | 28.0 | — |
The Dodgers lead by nine games.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAD Dodgers | 100–62 | — | 0.0 |
| SD Padres | 91–71 | 9.0 | — |
| AZ D-backs | 86–76 | 14.0 | — |
| SF Giants | 65–97 | 35.0 | — |
| COL Rockies | 58–104 | 42.0 | — |
Making a move
Nobody has gained 2.5 games on a playoff position in the last 14 days.
Losing ground
No club in a race has lost 2.5 games of ground in the last 14 days.
Runs against wins
Expected wins from runs scored and allowed, at the exponent fitted on 3,217 team-seasons. This is a description of what has already happened and not a forecast: a club is not owed the wins it has not got.
| Club | Record | Runs say | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET Tigers | 76–86 | 89–73 | 12.6 the record understates them |
| LAA Angels | 62–100 | 71–91 | 8.8 the record understates them |
| SF Giants | 65–97 | 72–90 | 6.6 the record understates them |
| TB Rays | 98–64 | 90–72 | 7.8 the record flatters them |
| CIN Reds | 75–87 | 65–97 | 9.8 the record flatters them |
Method
The standard formula, halves included: a club that has played fewer games can trail by half a game, and rounding that away reports a race as tied when it is not.
Wild card numbers are measured at the last playoff place, not the first. A league whose top wild card leads by five and whose third is level with four clubs is a tight race, and a number anchored at the front would call it comfortable.
0–100, from how close the nearest real challenger is, how many clubs are stacked behind them, and how little season is left. A gap of zero in April is a real race and not a decided one.
Ground gained on that position since the archive's night nearest 14 days ago. A window that predates the archive is left blank rather than shown as no movement.
remaining strength of schedule and remaining head-to-head games are the two inputs that would most improve every number above, and neither is derivable from what this site holds — there is no forward schedule here. A strength of schedule computed from games already played would be a different number wearing the right name, so it is absent and said to be absent rather than quietly implied.