81% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Matt Olson has not missed a game in 931 of them
His consecutive-games streak stands at 931, 8th on the all-time list.
Same case as last night, moved numbers: the streak went from 930 to 931 since September 10.
The case in 30 seconds
- 931 consecutive games — 8th all-time iron-man ledger, game-log verified at seed
- 38 4th in home runs at 38, 4th in total bases at 289, 5th in doubles at 33 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
The honest caveat
A milestone is arithmetic on a career, not a statement about this season. Reaching it depends on playing time between now and then, which nothing here predicts.
What to watch next
Next up: vs Philadelphia Phillies.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 931 consecutive games — 8th all-time iron-man ledger, game-log verified at seed
- 4th in home runs at 38, 4th in total bases at 289, 5th in doubles at 33 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Matt Olson is top-10 in the majors in home runs, total bases and doubles (and 1 other board).
The evidence
What changed last night
1 HR, 1 RBI
W 6-5 vs Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-09-11
carries a .249 average into today
What to watch next
vs Philadelphia Phillies
Truist Park · 7:15 p.m. ET
The opposing starter has not been announced.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 334 | .246 | 24 | 52 | .849 |
| vs LHP | 237 | .253 | 14 | 30 | .802 |
| Home | 288 | .264 | 18 | 39 | .844 |
| Away | 283 | .233 | 20 | 43 | .814 |
| Day | 179 | .223 | 8 | 21 | .713 |
| Night | 392 | .260 | 30 | 61 | .882 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
148G
571AB
142H
.249AVG
38HR
82RBI
4SB
332B
03B
.829OPS
Chasing .400
.249Current AVG
145Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
127-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
2.000Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (108-for-54)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .249 | .249 | 1.426 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .249 | .249 | 1.778 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .249 | .249 | 2.000 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .249 | .249 | 2.074 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .249 | .249 | 2.778 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 38 | 42 | 12 in 14 g · 1 per 4.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 38 | 42 | 22 in 14 g · 1 per 2.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 38 | 42 | 24 in 14 g · 1 per 2.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 38 | 42 | 32 in 14 g · 1 per 1.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 38 | 42 | 35 in 14 g · 1 per 1.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 142 | 155 | 58 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 142 | 155 | 83 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 142 | 155 | 108 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 142 | 155 | 120 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 4 | 4 | 46 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 4 | 4 | 76 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 4 | 4 | 96 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 4 | 4 | 126 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 33 | 36 | 17 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 33 | 36 | 27 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 33 | 36 | 34 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 0 | 0 | 25 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 0 | 0 | 36 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 82 | 90 | 43 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 82 | 90 | 68 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 82 | 90 | 93 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 82 | 90 | 109 in 14 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
58%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 59.370 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 54.130 after regressing toward the league's 30.170 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 40.7, against a straight team-game pace of 42. Exact beta-binomial over 61 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
46.9%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=292); median finish 39. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Philadelphia Phillies | W 6-5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .249 |
| 2026-09-10 | Tampa Bay Rays | W 3-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .249 |
| 2026-09-09 | Tampa Bay Rays | L 2-7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .248 |
| 2026-09-08 | Tampa Bay Rays | L 1-7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .249 |
| 2026-09-06 | Philadelphia Phillies | W 5-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .249 |
| 2026-09-05 | Philadelphia Phillies | L 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .250 |
| 2026-09-04 | Philadelphia Phillies | W 5-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .252 |
| 2026-09-01 | Washington Nationals | L 5-9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .254 |
| 2026-08-31 | San Francisco Giants | L 3-7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .256 |
| 2026-08-30 | Colorado Rockies | W 3-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .258 |
Recent highlights
▶︎
Matt Olson's walk-off single 2026-08-30 · Matt Olson's walk-off single in the 10th beat the Rockies 3-2
▶︎
Matt Olson's go-ahead three-run homer (36)2026-08-16 · Matt Olson's tiebreaking home run in the 7th put the Braves ahead for good in a 5-3 win over the Diamondbacks
▶︎
Matt Olson's walk-off homer (9) 2026-04-29 ·
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 148 team games; 64 in 2001