94% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Pete Alonso is 3 from 300 career home runs
He sits at 297 — one of the counting milestones the sport stops for.
This has been his headline for 5 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 297 career home runs, 3 from 300 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
- 94 4th in RBI at 94, 8th in total bases at 265, 9th in home runs at 33 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 94.2 mph average exit velocity 94.2 mph over 391 batted-ball events — 4th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- From nowhere: Pete Alonso is now 4th of 10 on MLB's RBI board — he wasn't on it a month ago, when it ran 10 deep. nightly anomaly scan, player id matched
- Average exit velocity94.2mph
- Hard-hit rate57.0%
- Barrel rate14.1%
- Max exit velocity114.6mph
This season only, 391 batted-ball events. Ranked 4th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters — that is a top-of-the-league board, not a league-wide ranking.
The honest caveat
A milestone is arithmetic on a career, not a statement about this season. Reaching it depends on playing time between now and then, which nothing here predicts.
What to watch next
Next up: vs Boston Red Sox.
Every claim above, with its source (4)
- 297 career home runs, 3 from 300 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
- 4th in RBI at 94, 8th in total bases at 265, 9th in home runs at 33 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- average exit velocity 94.2 mph over 391 batted-ball events — 4th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- From nowhere: Pete Alonso is now 4th of 10 on MLB's RBI board — he wasn't on it a month ago, when it ran 10 deep. nightly anomaly scan, player id matched
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Pete Alonso is top-10 in the majors in RBI, total bases and home runs; Pete Alonso is on the season's hardest-contact board; Pete Alonso is climbing fast.
The evidence
What changed last night
0-for-3
L 0-5 vs Boston Red Sox · 2026-09-05
carries a .265 average into today
What to watch next
vs Boston Red Sox
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 1:35 p.m. ET
Facing Payton Tolle
Pete Alonso faces a left-hander in Payton Tolle. He is hitting .253 with 9 home runs in 170 at-bats against left-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 365 | .271 | 24 | 70 | .888 |
| vs LHP | 170 | .253 | 9 | 24 | .774 |
| Home | 260 | .250 | 17 | 47 | .811 |
| Away | 275 | .280 | 16 | 47 | .891 |
| Day | 207 | .266 | 10 | 35 | .837 |
| Night | 328 | .265 | 23 | 59 | .861 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
143G
535AB
142H
.265AVG
33HR
94RBI
5SB
242B
03B
.852OPS
Chasing .400
.265Current AVG
120Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
112-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.423Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (101-for-71)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .265 | .265 | 1.000 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .265 | .265 | 1.254 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .265 | .265 | 1.423 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .265 | .265 | 1.479 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .265 | .265 | 1.986 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 33 | 37 | 17 in 19 g · 1 per 4.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 33 | 37 | 27 in 19 g · 1 per 2.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 33 | 37 | 29 in 19 g · 1 per 2.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 33 | 37 | 37 in 19 g · 1 per 1.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 33 | 37 | 40 in 19 g · 1 per 1.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 142 | 161 | 58 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 142 | 161 | 83 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 142 | 161 | 108 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 142 | 161 | 120 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 5 | 6 | 45 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 5 | 6 | 75 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 5 | 6 | 95 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 5 | 6 | 125 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 24 | 27 | 26 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 24 | 27 | 36 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 24 | 27 | 43 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 0 | 0 | 25 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 0 | 0 | 36 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 94 | 106 | 31 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 94 | 106 | 56 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 94 | 106 | 81 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 94 | 106 | 97 in 19 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
2%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 53.310 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 49.040 after regressing toward the league's 30.150 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 36.3, against a straight team-game pace of 37. Exact beta-binomial over 82 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
5.6%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=482); median finish 35. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Boston Red Sox | L 0-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .265 |
| 2026-09-04 | Boston Red Sox | L 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .267 |
| 2026-09-02 | Colorado Rockies | L 5-6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .269 |
| 2026-09-01 | Colorado Rockies | L 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .269 |
| 2026-08-31 | Colorado Rockies | W 2-1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .269 |
| 2026-08-30 | Athletics | W 8-5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .270 |
| 2026-08-29 | Athletics | W 5-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .269 |
| 2026-08-28 | Athletics | W 4-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .272 |
| 2026-08-27 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 5-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .274 |
| 2026-08-26 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 8-7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .276 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 143 team games; 60 in 2001