Pete Alonso

Baltimore Orioles · 1B · through 2026-08-10

Milestone watch

Why he matters right now

Pete Alonso is 11 from 300 career home runs

He sits at 289 — one of the counting milestones the sport stops for.

The case in 30 seconds

289 career home runs, 11 from 300 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
94.1 mph average exit velocity 94.1 mph over 319 batted-ball events — 4th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
75 9th in RBI at 75 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)

Contact quality

Average exit velocity94.1mph
Hard-hit rate55.8%
Barrel rate13.8%
Max exit velocity114.6mph

This season only, 319 batted-ball events. Ranked 4th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters — that is a top-of-the-league board, not a league-wide ranking.

The honest caveat

A milestone is arithmetic on a career, not a statement about this season. Reaching it depends on playing time between now and then, which nothing here predicts.

What to watch next

Next up: at Minnesota Twins.

Every claim above, with its source (3)

289 career home runs, 11 from 300 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
average exit velocity 94.1 mph over 319 batted-ball events — 4th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
9th in RBI at 75 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)

Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Pete Alonso is on the season's hardest-contact board; Pete Alonso is top-10 in the majors in RBI.

The evidence

What changed last night

1-for-4 L 5-9 vs Minnesota Twins · 2026-08-10 carries a .252 average into today

What to watch next

at Minnesota Twins Target Field · 7:40 p.m. ET Facing Bailey Ober

Pete Alonso faces a right-hander in Bailey Ober. He is hitting .257 with 19 home runs in 311 at-bats against right-handers this season.

Situational splits

Split	AB	AVG	HR	RBI	OPS
vs RHP	311	.257	19	59	.853
vs LHP	134	.239	6	16	.727
Home	226	.248	14	41	.811
Away	219	.256	11	34	.820
Day	189	.265	10	32	.838
Night	256	.242	15	43	.799

2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.

119G

445AB

112H

.252AVG

25HR

75RBI

5SB

222B

03B

.816OPS

Chasing .400

.252Current AVG

110Consecutive hits needed to reach .400

106-for-100Needed over next 100 AB

.814Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (131-for-161)

Status: EXTREME

Milestone tracker

Chase	Target	Current	Pace	Needed from here	Status
.350 AVG	.350	.252	.252	.627 ROS	EXTREME
.380 AVG	.380	.252	.252	.739 ROS	EXTREME
.400 AVG	.400	.252	.252	.814 ROS	EXTREME
.406 AVG	.406	.252	.252	.839 ROS	EXTREME
.466 AVG	.466	.252	.252	1.062 ROS	IMPOSSIBLE
50 HR	50	25	34	25 in 43 g · 1 per 6.4 AB	EXTREME
60 HR	60	25	34	35 in 43 g · 1 per 4.6 AB	EXTREME
62 HR	62	25	34	37 in 43 g · 1 per 4.3 AB	EXTREME
70 HR	70	25	34	45 in 43 g · 1 per 3.6 AB	EXTREME
73 HR	73	25	34	48 in 43 g · 1 per 3.3 AB	EXTREME
200 Hits	200	112	152	88 in 43 g	EXTREME
225 Hits	225	112	152	113 in 43 g	EXTREME
250 Hits	250	112	152	138 in 43 g	EXTREME
262 Hits	262	112	152	150 in 43 g	EXTREME
50 SB	50	5	7	45 in 43 g	EXTREME
80 SB	80	5	7	75 in 43 g	EXTREME
100 SB	100	5	7	95 in 43 g	EXTREME
130 SB	130	5	7	125 in 43 g	EXTREME
50 2B	50	22	30	28 in 43 g	EXTREME
60 2B	60	22	30	38 in 43 g	EXTREME
67 2B	67	22	30	45 in 43 g	EXTREME
20 3B	20	0	0	20 in 43 g	EXTREME
25 3B	25	0	0	25 in 43 g	EXTREME
36 3B	36	0	0	36 in 43 g	EXTREME
125 RBI	125	75	102	50 in 43 g	EXTREME
150 RBI	150	75	102	75 in 43 g	EXTREME
175 RBI	175	75	102	100 in 43 g	EXTREME
191 RBI	191	75	102	116 in 43 g	EXTREME

How likely is the finish?

1%finishes with 40+ home runs

0%finishes with 50+ home runs

0%finishes with 60+ home runs

His rate of 48.540 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 44.650 after regressing toward the league's 30.320 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 31.8, against a straight team-game pace of 34. Exact beta-binomial over 186 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.

Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons

Cumulative home runs by team game against straight 62 (Judge 2022) and 73 (Bonds 2001) paces. The homepage checkpoint card uses the exact game-by-game Retrosheet curves; these reference lines are straight-line paces.

1.8%of comparable chases reached 40 HR

0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR

0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR

Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=850); median finish 31. Retrosheet.

Recent game log

Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.

Date	Opp	Result	AB	H	RBI	R	BB	K	AVG
2026-08-10	Minnesota Twins	L 5-9	4	1	0	1	0	0	.252
2026-07-11	Kansas City Royals	W 6-1	5	1	1	0	0	2	.252
2026-07-04	Cincinnati Reds	W 8-5	3	3	1	1	2	0	.254
2026-07-03	Cincinnati Reds	W 3-0	4	1	0	0	0	1	.247
2026-07-01	Chicago White Sox	W 6-1	3	0	0	0	1	2	.247
2026-06-30	Chicago White Sox	L 3-9	3	1	1	0	1	1	.249
2026-06-29	Chicago White Sox	L 2-8	4	0	0	0	0	3	.248
2026-06-26	Washington Nationals	W 3-1	2	0	0	0	2	2	.252

Recent highlights

▶︎

Pete Alonso homers twice in Orioles' win2026-08-09 · Pete Alonso hit 2 home runs, driving in 4

▶︎

Pete Alonso's walk-off single2026-05-30 ·

Lahman + Retrosheet context

How this season fits history

Historical twinAndruw Jones · 2001

86% season-shape match

HR checkpoint-26 vs Barry Bonds

Through 119 team games; 51 in 2001

Chase history

Batting average, day by day

Projected HR, day by day