87% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Rafael Devers co-leads the majors in doubles
Through 147 games he is tied for first in doubles. It is a real league lead in a category that depends on opportunity as much as on the hitter, so the rate statistics below are the better read on how he has hit.
This has been his headline for 7 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 36 No. 1, shared, in doubles on MLB's own leaderboards — 36 doubles (tied with 1 other) MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- Surging: Rafael Devers has pushed his RBI pace from 89 to 105 in three weeks — 26 in 19 games where his own rate predicted 10.4. One of 71 pace comparisons run tonight. nightly anomaly scan, player id matched
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 629 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: vs San Diego Padres.
Every claim above, with its source (3)
- No. 1, shared, in doubles on MLB's own leaderboards — 36 doubles (tied with 1 other) MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- No. 1 in doubles on MLB's leaderboard, tied with 1 other MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- Surging: Rafael Devers has pushed his RBI pace from 89 to 105 in three weeks — 26 in 19 games where his own rate predicted 10.4. One of 71 pace comparisons run tonight. nightly anomaly scan, player id matched
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Rafael Devers is climbing fast.
The evidence
Tracked on Live Chases
- 53-2 Doubles Notable · WATCH No. 1 of 3doubles chases 36 record 67 — Earl Webb, 1931 39projected, against 50 · extreme
The score is an editorial score, not a measurement on a common scale. The rank above is this player's position on his own category's board — the ordering the site stands behind. See all tracked chases →
What changed last night
1 HR, 4 RBI
L 5-7 vs San Diego Padres · 2026-09-11
carries a .258 average into today
What to watch next
vs San Diego Padres
Oracle Park · 4:05 p.m. ET
Facing Michael King
Rafael Devers faces a right-hander in Michael King. He is hitting .303 with 28 home runs in 353 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 353 | .303 | 28 | 72 | 1.022 |
| vs LHP | 201 | .179 | 8 | 24 | .575 |
| Home | 268 | .257 | 18 | 60 | .856 |
| Away | 286 | .259 | 18 | 36 | .867 |
| Day | 213 | .249 | 13 | 36 | .838 |
| Night | 341 | .264 | 23 | 60 | .876 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
147G
554AB
143H
.258AVG
36HR
96RBI
0SB
362B
13B
.862OPS
Chasing .400
.258Current AVG
132Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
119-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.923Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (100-for-52)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .258 | .258 | 1.346 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .258 | .258 | 1.692 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .258 | .258 | 1.923 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .258 | .258 | 2.000 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .258 | .258 | 2.692 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 36 | 39 | 14 in 14 g · 1 per 3.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 36 | 39 | 24 in 14 g · 1 per 2.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 36 | 39 | 26 in 14 g · 1 per 2.0 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 36 | 39 | 34 in 14 g · 1 per 1.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 36 | 39 | 37 in 14 g · 1 per 1.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 143 | 157 | 57 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 143 | 157 | 82 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 143 | 157 | 107 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 143 | 157 | 119 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 0 | 0 | 50 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 0 | 0 | 80 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 0 | 0 | 100 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 0 | 0 | 130 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 36 | 39 | 14 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 36 | 39 | 24 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 36 | 39 | 31 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 96 | 105 | 29 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 96 | 105 | 54 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 96 | 105 | 79 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 96 | 105 | 95 in 14 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
14%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 57.230 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 52.310 after regressing toward the league's 30.170 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 38.6, against a straight team-game pace of 39. Exact beta-binomial over 60 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
15.2%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=374); median finish 37. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | San Diego Padres | L 5-7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .258 |
| 2026-09-08 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 2-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .258 |
| 2026-09-07 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 5-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .260 |
| 2026-09-06 | New York Mets | L 2-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .259 |
| 2026-09-05 | New York Mets | W 9-5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .258 |
| 2026-09-04 | New York Mets | L 6-10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .256 |
| 2026-09-02 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 5-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .252 |
| 2026-09-01 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 12-13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .253 |
| 2026-08-31 | Atlanta Braves | W 7-3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | .252 |
| 2026-08-29 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 1-7 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .251 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 148 team games; 64 in 2001