86% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Rafael Devers co-leads the majors in doubles
Through 142 games he is tied for first in doubles. It is a real league lead in a category that depends on opportunity as much as on the hitter, so the rate statistics below are the better read on how he has hit.
The story changed tonight — this page led with a different case yesterday.
The case in 30 seconds
- 34 No. 1, shared, in doubles on MLB's own leaderboards — 34 doubles (tied with 2 others) MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- Surging: Rafael Devers has pushed his RBI pace from 86 to 100 in three weeks — 23 in 20 games where his own rate predicted 10.7. One of 74 pace comparisons run tonight. nightly anomaly scan, player id matched
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 607 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: at New York Mets.
Every claim above, with its source (3)
- No. 1, shared, in doubles on MLB's own leaderboards — 34 doubles (tied with 2 others) MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- No. 1 in doubles on MLB's leaderboard, tied with 2 others MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- Surging: Rafael Devers has pushed his RBI pace from 86 to 100 in three weeks — 23 in 20 games where his own rate predicted 10.7. One of 74 pace comparisons run tonight. nightly anomaly scan, player id matched
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Rafael Devers is climbing fast.
The evidence
Tracked on Live Chases
- 53 Doubles Notable · WATCH No. 1 of 3doubles chases 34 record 67 — Earl Webb, 1931 39projected, against 50 · extreme
The score is an editorial score, not a measurement on a common scale. The rank above is this player's position on his own category's board — the ordering the site stands behind. See all tracked chases →
What changed last night
1 HR, 5 RBI
L 6-10 vs New York Mets · 2026-09-04
carries a .256 average into today
What to watch next
at New York Mets
Citi Field · 4:10 p.m. ET
Facing Zac Thornton
Rafael Devers faces a left-hander in Zac Thornton. He is hitting .176 with 5 home runs in 188 at-bats against left-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 347 | .300 | 28 | 71 | 1.012 |
| vs LHP | 188 | .176 | 5 | 17 | .536 |
| Home | 257 | .257 | 17 | 55 | .843 |
| Away | 278 | .255 | 16 | 33 | .849 |
| Day | 205 | .244 | 11 | 33 | .813 |
| Night | 330 | .264 | 22 | 55 | .866 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
142G
535AB
137H
.256AVG
33HR
88RBI
0SB
342B
13B
.846OPS
Chasing .400
.256Current AVG
129Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
117-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.427Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (107-for-75)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .256 | .256 | 1.027 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .256 | .256 | 1.267 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .256 | .256 | 1.427 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .256 | .256 | 1.480 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .256 | .256 | 1.973 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 33 | 38 | 17 in 20 g · 1 per 4.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 33 | 38 | 27 in 20 g · 1 per 2.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 33 | 38 | 29 in 20 g · 1 per 2.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 33 | 38 | 37 in 20 g · 1 per 2.0 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 33 | 38 | 40 in 20 g · 1 per 1.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 137 | 156 | 63 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 137 | 156 | 88 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 137 | 156 | 113 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 137 | 156 | 125 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 0 | 0 | 50 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 0 | 0 | 80 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 0 | 0 | 100 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 0 | 0 | 130 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 34 | 39 | 16 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 34 | 39 | 26 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 34 | 39 | 33 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 88 | 100 | 37 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 88 | 100 | 62 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 88 | 100 | 87 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 88 | 100 | 103 in 20 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
3%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 54.370 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 49.820 after regressing toward the league's 30.130 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 36.5, against a straight team-game pace of 38. Exact beta-binomial over 85 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
11.7%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=444); median finish 36. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | New York Mets | L 6-10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .256 |
| 2026-09-02 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 5-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .252 |
| 2026-09-01 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 12-13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .253 |
| 2026-08-31 | Atlanta Braves | W 7-3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | .252 |
| 2026-08-29 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 1-7 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .251 |
| 2026-08-28 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 6-10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .248 |
| 2026-08-27 | Arizona Diamondbacks | W 6-1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .248 |
| 2026-08-26 | Cincinnati Reds | L 9-10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .246 |
| 2026-08-25 | Cincinnati Reds | W 3-1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .244 |
| 2026-08-24 | Cincinnati Reds | W 5-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .243 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 142 team games; 60 in 2001