90% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Rafael Devers is top-10 in the majors in doubles, total bases and home runs (and 1 other board)
He is 5th in doubles at 36, 8th in total bases at 293, 9th in home runs at 37 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED hitter in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
This has been his headline for 36 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 36 5th in doubles at 36, 8th in total bases at 293, 9th in home runs at 37 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .258 .865 OPS, 37 home runs and 98 RBI over 148 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 633 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 5th in doubles at 36, 8th in total bases at 293, 9th in home runs at 37 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .865 OPS, 37 home runs and 98 RBI over 148 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 356 | .303 | 29 | 74 | 1.027 |
| vs LHP | 202 | .178 | 8 | 24 | .573 |
| Home | 272 | .257 | 19 | 62 | .862 |
| Away | 286 | .259 | 18 | 36 | .867 |
| Day | 217 | .249 | 14 | 38 | .846 |
| Night | 341 | .264 | 23 | 60 | .876 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
148G
558AB
144H
.258AVG
37HR
98RBI
0SB
362B
13B
.865OPS
Chasing .400
.258Current AVG
133Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
120-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
—Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (80-for-0)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .258 | .258 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .258 | .258 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .258 | .258 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .258 | .258 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .258 | .258 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 37 | 37 | 13 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 HR | 60 | 37 | 37 | 23 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 62 HR | 62 | 37 | 37 | 25 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 70 HR | 70 | 37 | 37 | 33 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 73 HR | 73 | 37 | 37 | 36 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 144 | 144 | 56 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 144 | 144 | 81 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 144 | 144 | 106 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 144 | 144 | 118 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 SB | 50 | 0 | 0 | 50 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 80 SB | 80 | 0 | 0 | 80 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 100 SB | 100 | 0 | 0 | 100 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 130 SB | 130 | 0 | 0 | 130 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 2B | 50 | 36 | 36 | 14 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 2B | 60 | 36 | 36 | 24 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 67 2B | 67 | 36 | 36 | 31 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 98 | 98 | 27 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 98 | 98 | 52 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 98 | 98 | 77 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 98 | 98 | 93 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 58.450 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 53.340 after regressing toward the league's 30.200 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 37.0, against a straight team-game pace of 37. Exact beta-binomial over 0 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
5.2%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=388); median finish 37. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | San Diego Padres | L 6-7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .258 |
| 2026-09-11 | San Diego Padres | L 5-7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .258 |
| 2026-09-08 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 2-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .258 |
| 2026-09-07 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 5-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .260 |
| 2026-09-06 | New York Mets | L 2-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .259 |
| 2026-09-05 | New York Mets | W 9-5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .258 |
| 2026-09-04 | New York Mets | L 6-10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .256 |
| 2026-09-02 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 5-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .252 |
| 2026-09-01 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 12-13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .253 |
| 2026-08-31 | Atlanta Braves | W 7-3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | .252 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 162 team games; 73 in 2001