88% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Kyle Schwarber co-leads the majors in home runs
Through 156 games he is tied for first in home runs — the kind of line that decides awards.
This has been his headline for 82 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 45 No. 1, shared, in home runs on MLB's own leaderboards — 45 home runs (tied with 1 other) MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 385 career home runs, 15 from 400 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 701 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
Every claim above, with its source (3)
- No. 1, shared, in home runs on MLB's own leaderboards — 45 home runs (tied with 1 other) MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- No. 1 in home runs on MLB's leaderboard, tied with 1 other MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 385 career home runs, 15 from 400 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Kyle Schwarber is 15 from 400 career home runs.
The evidence
Tracked on Live Chases
- 64 Home Runs Significant · MILESTONE No. 1 of 3home runs chases 45 record 73 — Barry Bonds, 2001 45projected, against 50 · impossible
The score is an editorial score, not a measurement on a common scale. The rank above is this player's position on his own category's board — the ordering the site stands behind. See all tracked chases →
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 366 | .216 | 30 | 63 | .834 |
| vs LHP | 215 | .260 | 15 | 34 | .896 |
| Home | 292 | .250 | 28 | 59 | .947 |
| Away | 289 | .215 | 17 | 38 | .766 |
| Day | 181 | .243 | 16 | 36 | .933 |
| Night | 400 | .228 | 29 | 61 | .822 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
156G
581AB
135H
.232AVG
45HR
97RBI
3SB
202B
13B
.857OPS
Chasing .400
.232Current AVG
163Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
138-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
—Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (98-for-0)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .232 | .232 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .232 | .232 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .232 | .232 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .232 | .232 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .232 | .232 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 45 | 45 | 5 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 HR | 60 | 45 | 45 | 15 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 62 HR | 62 | 45 | 45 | 17 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 70 HR | 70 | 45 | 45 | 25 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 73 HR | 73 | 45 | 45 | 28 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 135 | 135 | 65 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 135 | 135 | 90 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 135 | 135 | 115 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 135 | 135 | 127 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 SB | 50 | 3 | 3 | 47 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 80 SB | 80 | 3 | 3 | 77 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 100 SB | 100 | 3 | 3 | 97 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 130 SB | 130 | 3 | 3 | 127 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 2B | 50 | 20 | 20 | 30 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 2B | 60 | 20 | 20 | 40 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 67 2B | 67 | 20 | 20 | 47 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 97 | 97 | 28 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 97 | 97 | 53 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 97 | 97 | 78 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 97 | 97 | 94 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
How likely is the finish?
100%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 64.190 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 58.540 after regressing toward the league's 30.200 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 45.0, against a straight team-game pace of 45. Exact beta-binomial over 0 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
100.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=134); median finish 45. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 (6d) | Atlanta Braves | L 2-6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .232 |
| 2026-09-25 | Tampa Bay Rays | L 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .232 |
| 2026-09-24 | Milwaukee Brewers | L 1-5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .233 |
| 2026-09-23 | Milwaukee Brewers | L 1-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .231 |
| 2026-09-22 | Milwaukee Brewers | W 6-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .233 |
| 2026-09-20 | New York Mets | W 7-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | .234 |
| 2026-09-19 | New York Mets | L 3-10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .235 |
| 2026-09-18 | New York Mets | L 3-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .235 |
| 2026-09-17 | New York Mets | W 3-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .236 |
| 2026-09-16 | Washington Nationals | W 3-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .237 |
Recent highlights
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Kyle Schwarber on grand slam in win vs. Astros2026-09-09 · Kyle Schwarber hit a grand slam
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Kyle Schwarber's grand slam (44)2026-09-09 · Kyle Schwarber drove in 4 runs
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Kyle Schwarber's go-ahead homer (43)2026-09-07 · Kyle Schwarber's tiebreaking home run in the 8th put the Phillies ahead for good in a 1-0 win over the Braves
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 162 team games; 73 in 2001