86% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Kyle Schwarber leads the majors in home runs
Through 142 games he is first in home runs — the kind of line that decides awards.
This has been his headline for 33 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 44 No. 1 in home runs on MLB's own leaderboards — 44 home runs MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 384 career home runs, 16 from 400 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 637 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: at Atlanta Braves. 6 more to reach 50 HR.
Every claim above, with its source (3)
- No. 1 in home runs on MLB's own leaderboards — 44 home runs MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- No. 1 in home runs on MLB's leaderboard MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 384 career home runs, 16 from 400 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Kyle Schwarber is 16 from 400 career home runs.
The evidence
Tracked on Live Chases
- Batter Strikeouts Iconic · NEGATIVE HISTORY only one tracked 208 record 223 — Mark Reynolds, 2009 228projected
- 69 Home Runs Significant · MILESTONE No. 1 of 3home runs chases 44 record 73 — Barry Bonds, 2001 48projected, against 50 · near pace
The score is an editorial score, not a measurement on a common scale. The rank above is this player's position on his own category's board — the ordering the site stands behind. See all tracked chases →
What changed last night
0-for-5
L 5-6 vs Atlanta Braves · 2026-09-11
carries a .238 average into today
What to watch next
at Atlanta Braves
Truist Park · 7:15 p.m. ET
Facing Tyler Mahle
Kyle Schwarber faces a right-hander in Tyler Mahle. He is hitting .222 with 30 home runs in 338 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 338 | .222 | 30 | 59 | .855 |
| vs LHP | 195 | .267 | 14 | 33 | .907 |
| Home | 270 | .256 | 28 | 57 | .974 |
| Away | 263 | .221 | 16 | 35 | .770 |
| Day | 168 | .232 | 16 | 32 | .914 |
| Night | 365 | .241 | 28 | 60 | .856 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
142G
533AB
127H
.238AVG
44HR
92RBI
3SB
172B
13B
.874OPS
Chasing .400
.238Current AVG
144Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
127-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
2.140Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (107-for-50)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .238 | .238 | 1.560 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .238 | .238 | 1.900 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .238 | .238 | 2.140 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .238 | .238 | 2.200 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .238 | .238 | 2.900 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 44 | 48 | 6 in 14 g · 1 per 8.4 AB | NEAR PACE |
| 60 HR | 60 | 44 | 48 | 16 in 14 g · 1 per 3.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 44 | 48 | 18 in 14 g · 1 per 2.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 44 | 48 | 26 in 14 g · 1 per 1.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 44 | 48 | 29 in 14 g · 1 per 1.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 127 | 139 | 73 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 127 | 139 | 98 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 127 | 139 | 123 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 127 | 139 | 135 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 3 | 3 | 47 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 3 | 3 | 77 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 3 | 3 | 97 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 3 | 3 | 127 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 17 | 19 | 33 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 17 | 19 | 43 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 17 | 19 | 50 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 92 | 101 | 33 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 92 | 101 | 58 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 92 | 101 | 83 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 92 | 101 | 99 in 14 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
100%finishes with 40+ home runs
4%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 69.070 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 62.060 after regressing toward the league's 30.170 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 47.1, against a straight team-game pace of 48. Exact beta-binomial over 60 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
100.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
3.6%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=112); median finish 46. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Atlanta Braves | L 5-6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .238 |
| 2026-09-10 | Houston Astros | L 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .241 |
| 2026-09-09 | Houston Astros | W 11-7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .242 |
| 2026-09-08 | Houston Astros | L 5-6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .242 |
| 2026-09-06 | Atlanta Braves | L 4-5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .243 |
| 2026-09-05 | Atlanta Braves | W 4-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .240 |
| 2026-09-04 | Atlanta Braves | L 2-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .238 |
| 2026-09-01 | Arizona Diamondbacks | W 7-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .240 |
| 2026-08-31 | Arizona Diamondbacks | W 2-1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .241 |
| 2026-08-30 | Los Angeles Angels | W 5-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .244 |
Recent highlights
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Kyle Schwarber on grand slam in win vs. Astros2026-09-09 · Kyle Schwarber hit a grand slam
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Kyle Schwarber's grand slam (44)2026-09-09 · Kyle Schwarber drove in 4 runs
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Kyle Schwarber's go-ahead homer (43)2026-09-07 · Kyle Schwarber's tiebreaking home run in the 8th put the Phillies ahead for good in a 1-0 win over the Braves
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 148 team games; 64 in 2001