95% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Brandon Lowe is 10 from 200 career home runs
He sits at 190 — one of the counting milestones the sport stops for.
Same case as last night, moved numbers: the career total went from 184 to 190 since August 21.
The case in 30 seconds
- 190 career home runs, 10 from 200 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
- 147 147 hits, past his previous best of 132 in 2021 year-by-year record, 6 prior seasons since 2019 (MLB Stats API, cached)
- 33 10th in home runs at 33 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
The honest caveat
A milestone is arithmetic on a career, not a statement about this season. Reaching it depends on playing time between now and then, which nothing here predicts.
What to watch next
Next up: vs Kansas City Royals.
Every claim above, with its source (3)
- 190 career home runs, 10 from 200 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
- 147 hits, past his previous best of 132 in 2021 year-by-year record, 6 prior seasons since 2019 (MLB Stats API, cached)
- 10th in home runs at 33 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Brandon Lowe has already passed his career best in hits; Brandon Lowe is top-10 in the majors in home runs.
The evidence
What to watch next
vs Kansas City Royals
PNC Park · 1:35 p.m. ET
Facing Michael Wacha
Brandon Lowe faces a right-hander in Michael Wacha. He is hitting .283 with 26 home runs in 378 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 378 | .283 | 26 | 75 | .919 |
| vs LHP | 183 | .219 | 7 | 18 | .631 |
| Home | 293 | .266 | 19 | 54 | .849 |
| Away | 268 | .257 | 14 | 39 | .799 |
| Day | 224 | .263 | 14 | 37 | .846 |
| Night | 337 | .261 | 19 | 56 | .812 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
144G
561AB
147H
.262AVG
33HR
93RBI
2SB
292B
13B
.826OPS
Chasing .400
.262Current AVG
130Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
118-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
3.520Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (88-for-25)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .262 | .262 | 2.360 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .262 | .262 | 3.040 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .262 | .262 | 3.520 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .262 | .262 | 3.640 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .262 | .262 | 5.080 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 33 | 34 | 17 in 7 g · 1 per 1.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 33 | 34 | 27 in 7 g · 1 per 0.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 33 | 34 | 29 in 7 g · 1 per 0.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 33 | 34 | 37 in 7 g · 1 per 0.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 33 | 34 | 40 in 7 g · 1 per 0.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 147 | 154 | 53 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 147 | 154 | 78 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 147 | 154 | 103 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 147 | 154 | 115 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 2 | 2 | 48 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 2 | 2 | 78 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 2 | 2 | 98 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 2 | 2 | 128 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 29 | 30 | 21 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 29 | 30 | 31 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 29 | 30 | 38 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 93 | 97 | 32 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 93 | 97 | 57 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 93 | 97 | 82 in 7 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 93 | 97 | 98 in 7 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 52.380 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 48.360 after regressing toward the league's 30.240 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 34.1, against a straight team-game pace of 34. Exact beta-binomial over 28 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.2%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=602); median finish 33. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Los Angeles Dodgers | L 4-5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .254 |
| 2026-08-19 | Detroit Tigers | W 4-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .253 |
| 2026-08-18 | Detroit Tigers | W 4-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .252 |
| 2026-08-17 | Detroit Tigers | L 5-8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .254 |
| 2026-08-16 | Boston Red Sox | W 8-3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .252 |
| 2026-08-15 | Boston Red Sox | L 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .250 |
| 2026-07-08 | Atlanta Braves | L 0-3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .243 |
| 2026-07-07 | Atlanta Braves | W 12-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .247 |
| 2026-07-05 | Washington Nationals | W 11-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .242 |
| 2026-06-29 | Philadelphia Phillies | W 11-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .239 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 155 team games; 69 in 2001