87% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Randy Arozarena is top-10 in the majors in runs
He is 4th in runs at 96 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED hitter in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
The story changed tonight — this page led with a different case yesterday.
The case in 30 seconds
- 96 4th in runs at 96 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .272 .830 OPS, 22 home runs, 67 RBI and 22 stolen bases over 140 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 607 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: at Athletics.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 4th in runs at 96 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .830 OPS, 22 home runs, 67 RBI and 22 stolen bases over 140 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
1-for-5
L 5-6 vs Athletics · 2026-09-11
carries a .272 average into today
What to watch next
at Athletics
Sutter Health Park · 9:40 p.m. ET
Facing Gage Jump
Randy Arozarena faces a left-hander in Gage Jump. He is hitting .293 with 7 home runs in 147 at-bats against left-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 372 | .263 | 15 | 53 | .815 |
| vs LHP | 147 | .293 | 7 | 14 | .868 |
| Home | 247 | .243 | 9 | 28 | .765 |
| Away | 272 | .298 | 13 | 39 | .889 |
| Day | 187 | .267 | 10 | 32 | .848 |
| Night | 332 | .274 | 12 | 35 | .819 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
140G
519AB
141H
.272AVG
22HR
67RBI
22SB
292B
13B
.830OPS
Chasing .400
.272Current AVG
112Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
107-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.776Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (87-for-49)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .272 | .272 | 1.184 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .272 | .272 | 1.531 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .272 | .272 | 1.776 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .272 | .272 | 1.837 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .272 | .272 | 2.531 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 22 | 24 | 28 in 14 g · 1 per 1.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 22 | 24 | 38 in 14 g · 1 per 1.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 22 | 24 | 40 in 14 g · 1 per 1.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 22 | 24 | 48 in 14 g · 1 per 1.0 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 22 | 24 | 51 in 14 g · 1 per 1.0 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 141 | 154 | 59 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 141 | 154 | 84 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 141 | 154 | 109 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 141 | 154 | 121 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 22 | 24 | 28 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 22 | 24 | 58 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 22 | 24 | 78 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 22 | 24 | 108 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 29 | 32 | 21 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 29 | 32 | 31 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 29 | 32 | 38 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 67 | 73 | 58 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 67 | 73 | 83 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 67 | 73 | 108 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 67 | 73 | 124 in 14 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 36.240 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 35.100 after regressing toward the league's 30.170 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 23.7, against a straight team-game pace of 24. Exact beta-binomial over 57 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1726); median finish 23. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Athletics | L 5-6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .272 |
| 2026-09-10 | Texas Rangers | W 4-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .272 |
| 2026-09-09 | Texas Rangers | W 3-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .273 |
| 2026-09-08 | Texas Rangers | L 5-10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .274 |
| 2026-09-06 | Athletics | W 2-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .273 |
| 2026-09-05 | Athletics | L 2-6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .271 |
| 2026-09-04 | Athletics | L 6-7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .271 |
| 2026-09-03 | Athletics | L 4-7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .273 |
| 2026-09-02 | Boston Red Sox | W 8-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .273 |
| 2026-09-01 | Boston Red Sox | W 9-6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .272 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 148 team games; 64 in 2001