87% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Randy Arozarena is top-10 in the majors in runs
He is 2nd in runs at 113 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED hitter in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
This has been his headline for 25 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 113 2nd in runs at 113 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .281 .865 OPS, 26 home runs, 79 RBI and 26 stolen bases over 154 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 670 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 2nd in runs at 113 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .865 OPS, 26 home runs, 79 RBI and 26 stolen bases over 154 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
Tracked on Live Chases
- 57 Runs Notable · WATCH No. 2 of 3runs chases 113 record 177 — Babe Ruth, 1921 113projected, against 120 · impossible
The score is an editorial score, not a measurement on a common scale. The rank above is this player's position on his own category's board — the ordering the site stands behind. See all tracked chases →
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 402 | .271 | 15 | 58 | .827 |
| vs LHP | 170 | .306 | 11 | 21 | .954 |
| Home | 268 | .250 | 9 | 31 | .788 |
| Away | 304 | .309 | 17 | 48 | .933 |
| Day | 198 | .273 | 12 | 38 | .882 |
| Night | 374 | .286 | 14 | 41 | .856 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
154G
572AB
161H
.281AVG
26HR
79RBI
26SB
342B
23B
.865OPS
Chasing .400
.281Current AVG
114Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
108-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
—Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (68-for-0)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .281 | .281 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .281 | .281 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .281 | .281 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .281 | .281 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .281 | .281 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 26 | 26 | 24 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 HR | 60 | 26 | 26 | 34 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 62 HR | 62 | 26 | 26 | 36 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 70 HR | 70 | 26 | 26 | 44 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 73 HR | 73 | 26 | 26 | 47 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 161 | 161 | 39 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 161 | 161 | 64 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 161 | 161 | 89 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 161 | 161 | 101 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 SB | 50 | 26 | 26 | 24 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 80 SB | 80 | 26 | 26 | 54 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 100 SB | 100 | 26 | 26 | 74 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 130 SB | 130 | 26 | 26 | 104 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 2B | 50 | 34 | 34 | 16 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 2B | 60 | 34 | 34 | 26 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 67 2B | 67 | 34 | 34 | 33 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 20 3B | 20 | 2 | 2 | 18 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 25 3B | 25 | 2 | 2 | 23 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 36 3B | 36 | 2 | 2 | 34 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 79 | 79 | 46 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 79 | 79 | 71 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 79 | 79 | 96 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 79 | 79 | 112 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 38.810 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 37.320 after regressing toward the league's 30.200 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 26.0, against a straight team-game pace of 26. Exact beta-binomial over 0 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1279); median finish 26. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 (6d) | — | — | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | .281 |
| 2026-09-25 | Los Angeles Angels | L 5-7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .280 |
| 2026-09-24 | Los Angeles Angels | L 4-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .279 |
| 2026-09-23 | Houston Astros | W 6-5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .279 |
| 2026-09-22 | Houston Astros | L 0-7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .279 |
| 2026-09-20 | Colorado Rockies | W 2-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .279 |
| 2026-09-19 | Colorado Rockies | L 3-5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .281 |
| 2026-09-18 | Colorado Rockies | W 5-4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .281 |
| 2026-09-16 | Los Angeles Angels | W 7-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .278 |
| 2026-09-15 | Los Angeles Angels | L 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .277 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 162 team games; 73 in 2001