86% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Yordan Alvarez is top-10 in the majors in batting average, total bases and home runs (and 3 other boards)
He is 2nd in batting average at .310, 2nd in total bases at 308, 4th in home runs at 38 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED hitter in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
This has been his headline for 6 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- .310 2nd in batting average at .310, 2nd in total bases at 308, 4th in home runs at 38 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 94.2 mph average exit velocity 94.2 mph over 414 batted-ball events — 5th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- Average exit velocity94.2mph
- Hard-hit rate52.9%
- Barrel rate15.9%
- Max exit velocity118.5mph
This season only, 414 batted-ball events. Ranked 5th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters — that is a top-of-the-league board, not a league-wide ranking.
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 637 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: at Tampa Bay Rays. 42 more to reach 350 TB.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 2nd in batting average at .310, 2nd in total bases at 308, 4th in home runs at 38 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- average exit velocity 94.2 mph over 414 batted-ball events — 5th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Yordan Alvarez is on the season's hardest-contact board.
The evidence
Tracked on Live Chases
- 63-1 Total Bases Significant · MILESTONE No. 2 of 3total bases chases 308 record 457 — Babe Ruth, 1921 337projected, against 350 · near pace
- 55 Triple Crown (AL) Notable · WATCH only one tracked
- 50 Batting Average Notable · WATCH No. 2 of 3batting average chases .310 record .406 — Ted Williams, 1941 .310projected, against .400 · impossible
The score is an editorial score, not a measurement on a common scale. The rank above is this player's position on his own category's board — the ordering the site stands behind. See all tracked chases →
What to watch next
at Tampa Bay Rays
Tropicana Field · 6:10 p.m. ET
Facing Ian Seymour
Yordan Alvarez faces a left-hander in Ian Seymour. He is hitting .273 with 10 home runs in 150 at-bats against left-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 372 | .325 | 28 | 70 | 1.079 |
| vs LHP | 150 | .273 | 10 | 26 | .854 |
| Home | 265 | .362 | 21 | 54 | 1.159 |
| Away | 257 | .257 | 17 | 42 | .871 |
| Day | 159 | .277 | 9 | 23 | .953 |
| Night | 363 | .325 | 29 | 73 | 1.045 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
145G
522AB
162H
.310AVG
38HR
96RBI
1SB
302B
13B
1.017OPS
Chasing .400
.310Current AVG
79Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
87-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.367Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (67-for-49)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .310 | .310 | .776 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .310 | .310 | 1.122 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .310 | .310 | 1.367 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .310 | .310 | 1.429 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .310 | .310 | 2.143 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 38 | 42 | 12 in 14 g · 1 per 4.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 38 | 42 | 22 in 14 g · 1 per 2.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 38 | 42 | 24 in 14 g · 1 per 2.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 38 | 42 | 32 in 14 g · 1 per 1.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 38 | 42 | 35 in 14 g · 1 per 1.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 162 | 177 | 38 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 162 | 177 | 63 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 162 | 177 | 88 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 162 | 177 | 100 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 1 | 1 | 49 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 1 | 1 | 79 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 1 | 1 | 99 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 1 | 1 | 129 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 30 | 33 | 20 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 30 | 33 | 30 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 30 | 33 | 37 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 96 | 105 | 29 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 96 | 105 | 54 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 96 | 105 | 79 in 14 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 96 | 105 | 95 in 14 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
58%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 59.650 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 54.340 after regressing toward the league's 30.170 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 40.7, against a straight team-game pace of 42. Exact beta-binomial over 60 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
46.9%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=292); median finish 39. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Philadelphia Phillies | W 2-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .310 |
| 2026-09-09 | Philadelphia Phillies | L 7-11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .312 |
| 2026-09-08 | Philadelphia Phillies | W 6-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .311 |
| 2026-09-06 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .314 |
| 2026-09-05 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .315 |
| 2026-09-04 | Arizona Diamondbacks | W 3-1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .317 |
| 2026-09-02 | Chicago White Sox | W 2-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .316 |
| 2026-09-01 | Chicago White Sox | L 1-5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .317 |
| 2026-08-31 | Chicago White Sox | W 6-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | .316 |
| 2026-08-30 | New York Mets | W 6-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .317 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 148 team games; 64 in 2001