87% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Yordan Alvarez leads the majors in batting average
Through 158 games he is first in batting average — the kind of line that decides awards.
This has been his headline for 40 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- .316 No. 1 in batting average on MLB's own leaderboards, qualified pool — .316 batting average MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 94.4 mph average exit velocity 94.4 mph over 452 batted-ball events — 3rd on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- 42 42 home runs, past his previous best of 37 in 2022; 105 runs, past his previous best of 95 in 2022; 179 hits, past his previous best of 170 in 2024 year-by-year record, 5 prior seasons since 2019 (MLB Stats API, cached)
- Average exit velocity94.4mph
- Hard-hit rate53.8%
- Barrel rate15.9%
- Max exit velocity118.5mph
This season only, 452 batted-ball events. Ranked 3rd on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters — that is a top-of-the-league board, not a league-wide ranking.
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 692 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
Every claim above, with its source (4)
- No. 1 in batting average on MLB's own leaderboards, qualified pool — .316 batting average MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- No. 1 in batting average on MLB's qualified leaderboard MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- average exit velocity 94.4 mph over 452 batted-ball events — 3rd on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- 42 home runs, past his previous best of 37 in 2022; 105 runs, past his previous best of 95 in 2022; 179 hits, past his previous best of 170 in 2024 year-by-year record, 5 prior seasons since 2019 (MLB Stats API, cached)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Yordan Alvarez is on the season's hardest-contact board; Yordan Alvarez has already passed his career best in home runs.
The evidence
Tracked on Live Chases
- 64 Total Bases Significant · MILESTONE No. 2 of 3total bases chases 341 record 457 — Babe Ruth, 1921 341projected, against 350 · impossible
- 50 Batting Average Notable · WATCH No. 1 of 3batting average chases .316 record .406 — Ted Williams, 1941 .316projected, against .400 · impossible
The score is an editorial score, not a measurement on a common scale. The rank above is this player's position on his own category's board — the ordering the site stands behind. See all tracked chases →
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 405 | .336 | 32 | 80 | 1.114 |
| vs LHP | 162 | .265 | 10 | 26 | .825 |
| Home | 285 | .365 | 23 | 57 | 1.169 |
| Away | 282 | .266 | 19 | 49 | .897 |
| Day | 168 | .280 | 9 | 24 | .945 |
| Night | 399 | .331 | 33 | 82 | 1.071 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
158G
567AB
179H
.316AVG
42HR
106RBI
1SB
342B
13B
1.033OPS
Chasing .400
.316Current AVG
80Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
88-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
—Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (48-for-0)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .316 | .316 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .316 | .316 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .316 | .316 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .316 | .316 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .316 | .316 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 42 | 42 | 8 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 HR | 60 | 42 | 42 | 18 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 62 HR | 62 | 42 | 42 | 20 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 70 HR | 70 | 42 | 42 | 28 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 73 HR | 73 | 42 | 42 | 31 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 179 | 179 | 21 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 179 | 179 | 46 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 179 | 179 | 71 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 179 | 179 | 83 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 SB | 50 | 1 | 1 | 49 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 80 SB | 80 | 1 | 1 | 79 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 100 SB | 100 | 1 | 1 | 99 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 130 SB | 130 | 1 | 1 | 129 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 2B | 50 | 34 | 34 | 16 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 2B | 60 | 34 | 34 | 26 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 67 2B | 67 | 34 | 34 | 33 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 106 | 106 | 19 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 106 | 106 | 44 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 106 | 106 | 69 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 106 | 106 | 85 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
How likely is the finish?
100%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 60.690 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 55.560 after regressing toward the league's 30.200 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 42.0, against a straight team-game pace of 42. Exact beta-binomial over 0 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
100.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=195); median finish 42. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 (6d) | — | — | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .316 |
| 2026-09-25 | Athletics | L 5-6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .315 |
| 2026-09-24 | Athletics | W 7-5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .315 |
| 2026-09-23 | Seattle Mariners | L 5-6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .316 |
| 2026-09-22 | Seattle Mariners | W 7-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .314 |
| 2026-09-20 | Atlanta Braves | L 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .313 |
| 2026-09-19 | Atlanta Braves | L 3-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .312 |
| 2026-09-18 | Atlanta Braves | L 2-6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .312 |
| 2026-09-17 | Kansas City Royals | W 6-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .311 |
| 2026-09-16 | Kansas City Royals | L 2-5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .310 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 162 team games; 73 in 2001