83% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Julio Rodríguez sits 45th of 48 in OPS among qualified hitters on this site's tracked board
No MLB leaderboard lead, no live chase and no milestone in range — a .243 average; 21 home runs; 66 RBI; 22 stolen bases. The numbers below are the whole story, and a season that does not make a claim is a perfectly normal thing for a big-league season to be.
This has been his headline for 10 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 45th of 48 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .243 .701 OPS, 21 home runs, 66 RBI and 22 stolen bases over 145 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
No thesis is not the same as no value. This page reports what cleared its evidence bar; a season can matter to a team in ways a leaderboard does not record.
What to watch next
Next up: vs Houston Astros.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 45th of 48 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .701 OPS, 21 home runs, 66 RBI and 22 stolen bases over 145 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
1-for-3
W 2-1 vs Colorado Rockies · 2026-09-20
carries a .243 average into today
What to watch next
vs Houston Astros
T-Mobile Park · 9:40 p.m. ET
Facing Cristian Javier
Julio Rodríguez faces a right-hander in Cristian Javier. He is hitting .251 with 13 home runs in 398 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 398 | .251 | 13 | 47 | .703 |
| vs LHP | 177 | .226 | 8 | 19 | .695 |
| Home | 266 | .252 | 14 | 37 | .756 |
| Away | 309 | .236 | 7 | 29 | .653 |
| Day | 211 | .218 | 5 | 20 | .589 |
| Night | 364 | .258 | 16 | 46 | .766 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
145G
575AB
140H
.243AVG
21HR
66RBI
22SB
252B
03B
.701OPS
Chasing .400
.243Current AVG
150Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
130-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
4.500Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (99-for-22)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .243 | .243 | 3.136 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .243 | .243 | 3.955 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .243 | .243 | 4.500 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .243 | .243 | 4.682 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .243 | .243 | 6.318 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 21 | 22 | 29 in 6 g · 1 per 0.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 21 | 22 | 39 in 6 g · 1 per 0.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 21 | 22 | 41 in 6 g · 1 per 0.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 21 | 22 | 49 in 6 g · 1 per 0.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 21 | 22 | 52 in 6 g · 1 per 0.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 140 | 145 | 60 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 140 | 145 | 85 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 140 | 145 | 110 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 140 | 145 | 122 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 22 | 23 | 28 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 22 | 23 | 58 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 22 | 23 | 78 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 22 | 23 | 108 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 25 | 26 | 25 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 25 | 26 | 35 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 25 | 26 | 42 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 0 | 0 | 25 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 0 | 0 | 36 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 66 | 69 | 59 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 66 | 69 | 84 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 66 | 69 | 109 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 66 | 69 | 125 in 6 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 33.280 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 32.720 after regressing toward the league's 30.220 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 21.6, against a straight team-game pace of 22. Exact beta-binomial over 24 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1867); median finish 21. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Colorado Rockies | W 2-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .243 |
| 2026-09-19 | Colorado Rockies | L 3-5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .243 |
| 2026-09-18 | Colorado Rockies | W 5-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .241 |
| 2026-09-16 | Los Angeles Angels | W 7-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .243 |
| 2026-09-15 | Los Angeles Angels | L 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .241 |
| 2026-09-14 | Los Angeles Angels | L 4-6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .241 |
| 2026-09-13 | Athletics | L 7-8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .242 |
| 2026-09-12 | Athletics | W 19-1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .243 |
| 2026-09-11 | Athletics | L 5-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .239 |
| 2026-09-10 | Texas Rangers | W 4-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .239 |
Recent highlights
▶︎
Julio Rodríguez's three-run home run (21)2026-09-10 · Julio Rodríguez's go-ahead home run in the 7th put the Mariners ahead for good in a 4-3 win over the Rangers
▶︎
Julio Rodríguez ties game with first homer of season2026-04-11 · Julio Rodríguez hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 15
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 156 team games; 69 in 2001