81% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Miguel Vargas is top-10 in the majors in runs
He is 4th in runs at 95 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED hitter in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
Same case as last night, moved numbers: his headline number went from 94 to 95 since September 4.
The case in 30 seconds
- 95 4th in runs at 95 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 30 30 home runs, past his previous best of 16 in 2025; 78 RBI, past his previous best of 60 in 2025; 95 runs, past his previous best of 80 in 2025 year-by-year record, 3 prior seasons since 2023 (MLB Stats API, cached)
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 617 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: vs Minnesota Twins.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 4th in runs at 95 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 30 home runs, past his previous best of 16 in 2025; 78 RBI, past his previous best of 60 in 2025; 95 runs, past his previous best of 80 in 2025 year-by-year record, 3 prior seasons since 2023 (MLB Stats API, cached)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Miguel Vargas has already passed his career best in home runs.
The evidence
What changed last night
1 RBI
L 4-6 vs Minnesota Twins · 2026-09-05
carries a .251 average into today
What to watch next
vs Minnesota Twins
Rate Field · 6:20 p.m. ET
Facing Bailey Ober
Miguel Vargas faces a right-hander in Bailey Ober. He is hitting .241 with 18 home runs in 370 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 370 | .241 | 18 | 56 | .795 |
| vs LHP | 148 | .277 | 12 | 22 | .981 |
| Home | 255 | .263 | 16 | 41 | .899 |
| Away | 263 | .240 | 14 | 37 | .799 |
| Day | 208 | .207 | 7 | 19 | .716 |
| Night | 310 | .281 | 23 | 59 | .938 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
140G
518AB
130H
.251AVG
30HR
78RBI
15SB
302B
13B
.848OPS
Chasing .400
.251Current AVG
129Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
118-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.466Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (107-for-73)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .251 | .251 | 1.055 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .251 | .251 | 1.301 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .251 | .251 | 1.466 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .251 | .251 | 1.507 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .251 | .251 | 2.000 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 30 | 34 | 20 in 20 g · 1 per 3.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 30 | 34 | 30 in 20 g · 1 per 2.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 30 | 34 | 32 in 20 g · 1 per 2.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 30 | 34 | 40 in 20 g · 1 per 1.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 30 | 34 | 43 in 20 g · 1 per 1.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 130 | 148 | 70 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 130 | 148 | 95 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 130 | 148 | 120 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 130 | 148 | 132 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 15 | 17 | 35 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 15 | 17 | 65 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 15 | 17 | 85 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 15 | 17 | 115 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 30 | 34 | 20 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 30 | 34 | 30 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 30 | 34 | 37 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 78 | 89 | 47 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 78 | 89 | 72 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 78 | 89 | 97 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 78 | 89 | 113 in 20 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 48.620 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 45.210 after regressing toward the league's 30.150 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 33.2, against a straight team-game pace of 34. Exact beta-binomial over 87 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
1.7%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=665); median finish 33. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Minnesota Twins | L 4-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .251 |
| 2026-09-04 | Minnesota Twins | W 4-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .251 |
| 2026-09-02 | Houston Astros | L 0-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .251 |
| 2026-09-01 | Houston Astros | W 5-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .249 |
| 2026-08-31 | Houston Astros | L 3-6 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .251 |
| 2026-08-30 | Minnesota Twins | L 1-5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .249 |
| 2026-08-29 | Minnesota Twins | W 3-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .249 |
| 2026-08-28 | Minnesota Twins | W 7-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .251 |
| 2026-08-26 | Texas Rangers | W 10-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .251 |
| 2026-08-25 | Texas Rangers | W 11-7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .248 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 142 team games; 60 in 2001