87% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Miguel Vargas is top-10 in the majors in runs
He is 3rd in runs at 106 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED hitter in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
This has been his headline for 17 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 106 3rd in runs at 106 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 22 22 stolen bases, past his previous best of 6 in 2024; 33 home runs, past his previous best of 16 in 2025; 93 RBI, past his previous best of 60 in 2025; 106 runs, past his previous best of 80 in 2025; 147 hits, past his previous best of 118 in 2025 year-by-year record, 3 prior seasons since 2023 (MLB Stats API, cached)
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 704 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: vs Cleveland Guardians.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 3rd in runs at 106 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 22 stolen bases, past his previous best of 6 in 2024; 33 home runs, past his previous best of 16 in 2025; 93 RBI, past his previous best of 60 in 2025; 106 runs, past his previous best of 80 in 2025; 147 hits, past his previous best of 118 in 2025 year-by-year record, 3 prior seasons since 2023 (MLB Stats API, cached)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Miguel Vargas has already passed his career best in stolen bases.
The evidence
Tracked on Live Chases
- 52 Runs Notable · WATCH No. 3 of 3runs chases 106 record 177 — Babe Ruth, 1921 106projected, against 120 · impossible
The score is an editorial score, not a measurement on a common scale. The rank above is this player's position on his own category's board — the ordering the site stands behind. See all tracked chases →
What to watch next
vs Cleveland Guardians
Rate Field · 4:00 p.m. ET
Facing Daniel Espino
Miguel Vargas faces a right-hander in Daniel Espino. He is hitting .242 with 21 home runs in 418 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 418 | .242 | 21 | 70 | .801 |
| vs LHP | 170 | .271 | 12 | 23 | .926 |
| Home | 287 | .254 | 18 | 47 | .887 |
| Away | 301 | .246 | 15 | 46 | .789 |
| Day | 225 | .218 | 8 | 22 | .743 |
| Night | 363 | .270 | 25 | 71 | .896 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
159G
588AB
147H
.250AVG
33HR
93RBI
22SB
312B
13B
.837OPS
Chasing .400
.250Current AVG
148Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
129-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
—Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (89-for-0)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .250 | .250 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .250 | .250 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .250 | .250 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .250 | .250 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .250 | .250 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 33 | 33 | 17 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 HR | 60 | 33 | 33 | 27 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 62 HR | 62 | 33 | 33 | 29 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 70 HR | 70 | 33 | 33 | 37 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 73 HR | 73 | 33 | 33 | 40 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 147 | 147 | 53 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 147 | 147 | 78 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 147 | 147 | 103 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 147 | 147 | 115 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 SB | 50 | 22 | 22 | 28 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 80 SB | 80 | 22 | 22 | 58 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 100 SB | 100 | 22 | 22 | 78 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 130 SB | 130 | 22 | 22 | 108 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 2B | 50 | 31 | 31 | 19 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 2B | 60 | 31 | 31 | 29 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 67 2B | 67 | 31 | 31 | 36 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 93 | 93 | 32 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 93 | 93 | 57 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 93 | 93 | 82 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 93 | 93 | 98 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 46.880 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 44.110 after regressing toward the league's 30.200 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 33.0, against a straight team-game pace of 33. Exact beta-binomial over 0 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=666); median finish 33. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 (6d) | — | — | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | .250 |
| 2026-09-25 | Colorado Rockies | W 6-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .251 |
| 2026-09-24 | Kansas City Royals | W 9-1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | .252 |
| 2026-09-23 | Kansas City Royals | L 4-5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .251 |
| 2026-09-22 | Kansas City Royals | W 14-11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .251 |
| 2026-09-20 | Detroit Tigers | W 8-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | .251 |
| 2026-09-19 | Detroit Tigers | W 3-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .250 |
| 2026-09-18 | Detroit Tigers | L 8-11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .249 |
| 2026-09-17 | Detroit Tigers | W 3-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .248 |
| 2026-09-16 | Cleveland Guardians | L 3-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .249 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 162 team games; 73 in 2001