89% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Elly De La Cruz is on the season's hardest-contact board
He averages 94.2 mph off the bat over 339 batted balls, with 51.9% hit hard — contact quality that shows up whether or not the results have caught up yet.
This has been his headline for 5 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 94.2 mph average exit velocity 94.2 mph over 339 batted-ball events — 5th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- .278 .840 OPS, 22 home runs, 62 RBI and 24 stolen bases over 123 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
- Average exit velocity94.2mph
- Hard-hit rate51.9%
- Barrel rate14.2%
- Max exit velocity116.3mph
This season only, 339 batted-ball events. Ranked 5th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters — that is a top-of-the-league board, not a league-wide ranking.
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 550 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: vs Milwaukee Brewers.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- average exit velocity 94.2 mph over 339 batted-ball events — 5th on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- .840 OPS, 22 home runs, 62 RBI and 24 stolen bases over 123 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
1 HR, 1 RBI
W 5-3 vs Milwaukee Brewers · 2026-09-05
carries a .278 average into today
What to watch next
vs Milwaukee Brewers
Great American Ball Park · 12:10 p.m. ET
Facing Kyle Harrison
Elly De La Cruz faces a left-hander in Kyle Harrison. He is hitting .346 with 8 home runs in 136 at-bats against left-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 350 | .251 | 14 | 35 | .763 |
| vs LHP | 136 | .346 | 8 | 27 | 1.038 |
| Home | 241 | .299 | 12 | 30 | .905 |
| Away | 245 | .257 | 10 | 32 | .775 |
| Day | 201 | .259 | 6 | 15 | .720 |
| Night | 285 | .291 | 16 | 47 | .923 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
123G
486AB
135H
.278AVG
22HR
62RBI
24SB
242B
53B
.840OPS
Chasing .400
.278Current AVG
100Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
100-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.279Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (87-for-68)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .278 | .278 | .868 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .278 | .278 | 1.118 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .278 | .278 | 1.279 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .278 | .278 | 1.324 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .278 | .278 | 1.824 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 22 | 25 | 28 in 20 g · 1 per 2.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 22 | 25 | 38 in 20 g · 1 per 1.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 22 | 25 | 40 in 20 g · 1 per 1.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 22 | 25 | 48 in 20 g · 1 per 1.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 22 | 25 | 51 in 20 g · 1 per 1.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 135 | 154 | 65 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 135 | 154 | 90 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 135 | 154 | 115 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 135 | 154 | 127 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 24 | 27 | 26 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 24 | 27 | 56 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 24 | 27 | 76 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 24 | 27 | 106 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 24 | 27 | 26 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 24 | 27 | 36 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 24 | 27 | 43 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 5 | 6 | 15 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 5 | 6 | 20 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 5 | 6 | 31 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 62 | 71 | 63 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 62 | 71 | 88 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 62 | 71 | 113 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 62 | 71 | 129 in 20 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 40.000 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 38.000 after regressing toward the league's 30.150 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 24.4, against a straight team-game pace of 25. Exact beta-binomial over 77 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1637); median finish 24. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Milwaukee Brewers | W 5-3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .278 |
| 2026-09-04 | Milwaukee Brewers | L 7-10 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .276 |
| 2026-09-01 | San Diego Padres | W 4-3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .273 |
| 2026-08-31 | San Diego Padres | L 0-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | .271 |
| 2026-08-30 | Chicago Cubs | W 7-5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .271 |
| 2026-08-29 | Chicago Cubs | L 5-17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .269 |
| 2026-08-28 | Chicago Cubs | W 10-8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .268 |
| 2026-08-26 | San Francisco Giants | W 10-9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .265 |
| 2026-08-25 | San Francisco Giants | L 1-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .262 |
| 2026-08-24 | San Francisco Giants | L 0-5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .262 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 142 team games; 60 in 2001