81% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Elly De La Cruz is on the season's hardest-contact board
He averages 94.7 mph off the bat over 387 batted balls, with 53.7% hit hard — contact quality that shows up whether or not the results have caught up yet.
This has been his headline for 29 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 94.7 mph average exit velocity 94.7 mph over 387 batted-ball events — 2nd on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- .283 .880 OPS, 30 home runs, 79 RBI and 30 stolen bases over 143 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
- Average exit velocity94.7mph
- Hard-hit rate53.7%
- Barrel rate16.0%
- Max exit velocity117.4mph
This season only, 387 batted-ball events. Ranked 2nd on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters — that is a top-of-the-league board, not a league-wide ranking.
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 636 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- average exit velocity 94.7 mph over 387 batted-ball events — 2nd on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- .880 OPS, 30 home runs, 79 RBI and 30 stolen bases over 143 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 393 | .265 | 20 | 47 | .834 |
| vs LHP | 166 | .325 | 10 | 32 | .990 |
| Home | 267 | .303 | 15 | 37 | .941 |
| Away | 292 | .264 | 15 | 42 | .822 |
| Day | 226 | .257 | 7 | 19 | .720 |
| Night | 333 | .300 | 23 | 60 | .987 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
143G
559AB
158H
.283AVG
30HR
79RBI
30SB
302B
53B
.880OPS
Chasing .400
.283Current AVG
110Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
106-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
—Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (66-for-0)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .283 | .283 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .283 | .283 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .283 | .283 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .283 | .283 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .283 | .283 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 30 | 30 | 20 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 HR | 60 | 30 | 30 | 30 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 62 HR | 62 | 30 | 30 | 32 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 70 HR | 70 | 30 | 30 | 40 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 73 HR | 73 | 30 | 30 | 43 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 158 | 158 | 42 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 158 | 158 | 67 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 158 | 158 | 92 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 158 | 158 | 104 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 SB | 50 | 30 | 30 | 20 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 80 SB | 80 | 30 | 30 | 50 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 100 SB | 100 | 30 | 30 | 70 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 130 SB | 130 | 30 | 30 | 100 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 2B | 50 | 30 | 30 | 20 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 2B | 60 | 30 | 30 | 30 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 67 2B | 67 | 30 | 30 | 37 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 20 3B | 20 | 5 | 5 | 15 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 25 3B | 25 | 5 | 5 | 20 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 36 3B | 36 | 5 | 5 | 31 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 79 | 79 | 46 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 79 | 79 | 71 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 79 | 79 | 96 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 79 | 79 | 112 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 47.170 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 44.110 after regressing toward the league's 30.200 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 30.0, against a straight team-game pace of 30. Exact beta-binomial over 0 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=868); median finish 30. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 (6d) | — | — | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .283 |
| 2026-09-25 | Toronto Blue Jays | L 5-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .285 |
| 2026-09-24 | Atlanta Braves | W 7-6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .285 |
| 2026-09-23 | Atlanta Braves | L 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .285 |
| 2026-09-22 | Atlanta Braves | W 4-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .288 |
| 2026-09-20 | Chicago Cubs | L 1-9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .285 |
| 2026-09-19 | Chicago Cubs | L 2-5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .286 |
| 2026-09-18 | Chicago Cubs | W 6-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .287 |
| 2026-09-17 | Los Angeles Dodgers | L 2-8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .284 |
| 2026-09-16 | Los Angeles Dodgers | W 6-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .286 |
Recent highlights
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Elly De La Cruz's two-run homer (23)2026-09-06 · Elly De La Cruz drove in 4 runs
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Elly De La Cruz's first career walk-off hit2026-08-17 · Elly De La Cruz's walk-off double in the 10th beat the Cardinals 6-5
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Elly De La Cruz's go-ahead sacrifice fly2026-08-11 · Elly De La Cruz's tiebreaking sacrifice fly in the 10th put the Reds ahead for good in a 5-4 win over the White Sox
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 162 team games; 73 in 2001