81% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Elly De La Cruz is on the season's hardest-contact board
He averages 94.5 mph off the bat over 351 batted balls, with 53.0% hit hard — contact quality that shows up whether or not the results have caught up yet.
This has been his headline for 11 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 94.5 mph average exit velocity 94.5 mph over 351 batted-ball events — 3rd on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- .282 .869 OPS, 26 home runs, 70 RBI and 25 stolen bases over 128 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
- Average exit velocity94.5mph
- Hard-hit rate53.0%
- Barrel rate15.7%
- Max exit velocity116.6mph
This season only, 351 batted-ball events. Ranked 3rd on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters — that is a top-of-the-league board, not a league-wide ranking.
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 571 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: at Milwaukee Brewers.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- average exit velocity 94.5 mph over 351 batted-ball events — 3rd on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- .869 OPS, 26 home runs, 70 RBI and 25 stolen bases over 128 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
0-for-3
L 0-20 vs Milwaukee Brewers · 2026-09-11
carries a .282 average into today
What to watch next
at Milwaukee Brewers
American Family Field · 7:10 p.m. ET
The opposing starter has not been announced.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 361 | .255 | 16 | 39 | .787 |
| vs LHP | 143 | .350 | 10 | 31 | 1.074 |
| Home | 245 | .302 | 13 | 34 | .927 |
| Away | 259 | .263 | 13 | 36 | .812 |
| Day | 205 | .263 | 7 | 19 | .750 |
| Night | 299 | .294 | 19 | 51 | .948 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
128G
504AB
142H
.282AVG
26HR
70RBI
25SB
262B
53B
.869OPS
Chasing .400
.282Current AVG
100Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
100-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.569Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (80-for-51)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .282 | .282 | 1.039 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .282 | .282 | 1.353 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .282 | .282 | 1.569 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .282 | .282 | 1.647 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .282 | .282 | 2.294 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 26 | 29 | 24 in 15 g · 1 per 2.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 26 | 29 | 34 in 15 g · 1 per 1.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 26 | 29 | 36 in 15 g · 1 per 1.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 26 | 29 | 44 in 15 g · 1 per 1.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 26 | 29 | 47 in 15 g · 1 per 1.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 142 | 156 | 58 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 142 | 156 | 83 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 142 | 156 | 108 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 142 | 156 | 120 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 25 | 28 | 25 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 25 | 28 | 55 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 25 | 28 | 75 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 25 | 28 | 105 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 26 | 29 | 24 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 26 | 29 | 34 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 26 | 29 | 41 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 5 | 6 | 15 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 5 | 6 | 20 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 5 | 6 | 31 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 70 | 77 | 55 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 70 | 77 | 80 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 70 | 77 | 105 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 70 | 77 | 121 in 15 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 45.530 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 42.510 after regressing toward the league's 30.170 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 28.0, against a straight team-game pace of 29. Exact beta-binomial over 58 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1110); median finish 28. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Milwaukee Brewers | L 0-20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .282 |
| 2026-09-09 | Los Angeles Dodgers | L 1-14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .283 |
| 2026-09-08 | Los Angeles Dodgers | L 2-3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .283 |
| 2026-09-07 | Los Angeles Dodgers | L 3-6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .281 |
| 2026-09-06 | Milwaukee Brewers | W 12-8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .280 |
| 2026-09-05 | Milwaukee Brewers | W 5-3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .278 |
| 2026-09-04 | Milwaukee Brewers | L 7-10 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .276 |
| 2026-09-01 | San Diego Padres | W 4-3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .273 |
| 2026-08-31 | San Diego Padres | L 0-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | .271 |
| 2026-08-30 | Chicago Cubs | W 7-5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .271 |
Recent highlights
▶︎
Elly De La Cruz's two-run homer (23)2026-09-06 · Elly De La Cruz drove in 4 runs
▶︎
Elly De La Cruz's first career walk-off hit2026-08-17 · Elly De La Cruz's walk-off double in the 10th beat the Cardinals 6-5
▶︎
Elly De La Cruz's go-ahead sacrifice fly2026-08-11 · Elly De La Cruz's tiebreaking sacrifice fly in the 10th put the Reds ahead for good in a 5-4 win over the White Sox
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 147 team games; 64 in 2001