82% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Zach Neto is top-10 in the majors in runs
He is 8th in runs at 89 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED hitter in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
The case in 30 seconds
- 89 8th in runs at 89 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .238 .747 OPS, 23 home runs, 67 RBI and 19 stolen bases over 137 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
A top-ten finish is a position on a board, not a verdict on a player. The men just below him on it are not meaningfully worse, and one good week moves several places.
What to watch next
Next up: at Pittsburgh Pirates.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 8th in runs at 89 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .747 OPS, 23 home runs, 67 RBI and 19 stolen bases over 137 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
1 RBI
W 6-1 vs Pittsburgh Pirates · 2026-09-05
carries a .238 average into today
What to watch next
at Pittsburgh Pirates
PNC Park · 1:35 p.m. ET
Facing Paul Skenes
Zach Neto faces a right-hander in Paul Skenes. He is hitting .227 with 17 home runs in 397 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 397 | .227 | 17 | 50 | .722 |
| vs LHP | 150 | .267 | 6 | 17 | .812 |
| Home | 266 | .211 | 9 | 24 | .651 |
| Away | 281 | .263 | 14 | 43 | .837 |
| Day | 160 | .213 | 7 | 25 | .723 |
| Night | 387 | .248 | 16 | 42 | .757 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
137G
547AB
130H
.238AVG
23HR
67RBI
19SB
282B
43B
.747OPS
Chasing .400
.238Current AVG
149Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
129-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.558Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (120-for-77)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .238 | .238 | 1.156 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .238 | .238 | 1.403 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .238 | .238 | 1.558 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .238 | .238 | 1.610 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .238 | .238 | 2.091 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 23 | 26 | 27 in 20 g · 1 per 2.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 23 | 26 | 37 in 20 g · 1 per 2.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 23 | 26 | 39 in 20 g · 1 per 2.0 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 23 | 26 | 47 in 20 g · 1 per 1.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 23 | 26 | 50 in 20 g · 1 per 1.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 130 | 148 | 70 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 130 | 148 | 95 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 130 | 148 | 120 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 130 | 148 | 132 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 19 | 22 | 31 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 19 | 22 | 61 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 19 | 22 | 81 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 19 | 22 | 111 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 28 | 32 | 22 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 28 | 32 | 32 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 28 | 32 | 39 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 4 | 5 | 16 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 4 | 5 | 21 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 4 | 5 | 32 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 67 | 76 | 58 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 67 | 76 | 83 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 67 | 76 | 108 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 67 | 76 | 124 in 20 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 37.580 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 36.200 after regressing toward the league's 30.150 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 25.6, against a straight team-game pace of 26. Exact beta-binomial over 86 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1485); median finish 25. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 6-1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .238 |
| 2026-09-04 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .234 |
| 2026-09-01 | New York Yankees | L 3-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .236 |
| 2026-08-31 | New York Yankees | W 10-1 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | .238 |
| 2026-08-29 | Philadelphia Phillies | L 2-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .236 |
| 2026-08-28 | Philadelphia Phillies | L 3-5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .236 |
| 2026-08-26 | Cleveland Guardians | L 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .237 |
| 2026-08-25 | Cleveland Guardians | L 6-8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .236 |
| 2026-08-24 | Cleveland Guardians | L 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .237 |
| 2026-08-23 | Texas Rangers | L 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .237 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 142 team games; 60 in 2001