84% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Jordan Walker has already passed his career best in stolen bases
He has 22; his previous best was 10, in 2025. That is measured over the two seasons of at least 200 at-bats he has played. He is also past his best in RBI, runs, home runs and hits.
This has been his headline for 38 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 22 22 stolen bases, past his previous best of 10 in 2025; 102 RBI, past his previous best of 51 in 2023; 97 runs, past his previous best of 51 in 2023; 29 home runs, past his previous best of 16 in 2023; 164 hits, past his previous best of 116 in 2023 year-by-year record, 2 prior seasons since 2023 (MLB Stats API, cached)
- 102 7th in RBI at 102 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
The honest caveat
A career-best total is measured against his own record and nobody else's, and for most players that record is short. Beating it says this year is his best; it says nothing about where the season sits in the league, and a young player passing an early-career mark is closer to normal than to remarkable.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 22 stolen bases, past his previous best of 10 in 2025; 102 RBI, past his previous best of 51 in 2023; 97 runs, past his previous best of 51 in 2023; 29 home runs, past his previous best of 16 in 2023; 164 hits, past his previous best of 116 in 2023 year-by-year record, 2 prior seasons since 2023 (MLB Stats API, cached)
- 7th in RBI at 102 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Jordan Walker is top-10 in the majors in RBI.
The evidence
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 454 | .267 | 20 | 80 | .769 |
| vs LHP | 155 | .277 | 9 | 22 | .863 |
| Home | 295 | .268 | 10 | 31 | .744 |
| Away | 314 | .271 | 19 | 71 | .840 |
| Day | 234 | .239 | 14 | 46 | .783 |
| Night | 375 | .288 | 15 | 56 | .799 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
158G
609AB
164H
.269AVG
29HR
102RBI
22SB
332B
03B
.793OPS
Chasing .400
.269Current AVG
133Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
120-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
—Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (80-for-0)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .269 | .269 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .269 | .269 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .269 | .269 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .269 | .269 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .269 | .269 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 29 | 29 | 21 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 HR | 60 | 29 | 29 | 31 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 62 HR | 62 | 29 | 29 | 33 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 70 HR | 70 | 29 | 29 | 41 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 73 HR | 73 | 29 | 29 | 44 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 164 | 164 | 36 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 164 | 164 | 61 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 164 | 164 | 86 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 164 | 164 | 98 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 SB | 50 | 22 | 22 | 28 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 80 SB | 80 | 22 | 22 | 58 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 100 SB | 100 | 22 | 22 | 78 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 130 SB | 130 | 22 | 22 | 108 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 2B | 50 | 33 | 33 | 17 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 2B | 60 | 33 | 33 | 27 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 67 2B | 67 | 33 | 33 | 34 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 20 3B | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 25 3B | 25 | 0 | 0 | 25 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 36 3B | 36 | 0 | 0 | 36 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 102 | 102 | 23 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 102 | 102 | 48 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 102 | 102 | 73 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 102 | 102 | 89 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 43.480 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 41.170 after regressing toward the league's 30.200 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 29.0, against a straight team-game pace of 29. Exact beta-binomial over 0 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=957); median finish 29. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 (6d) | — | — | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .269 |
| 2026-09-25 | Milwaukee Brewers | L 4-8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .271 |
| 2026-09-24 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .271 |
| 2026-09-23 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 5-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .273 |
| 2026-09-22 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .273 |
| 2026-09-20 | Washington Nationals | W 5-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .274 |
| 2026-09-19 | Washington Nationals | L 5-8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .276 |
| 2026-09-18 | Washington Nationals | L 1-9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .279 |
| 2026-09-16 | San Francisco Giants | L 5-6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | .278 |
| 2026-09-15 | San Francisco Giants | L 3-10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .280 |
Recent highlights
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Jordan Walker's three-run home run (26)2026-08-20 · Jordan Walker drove in 4 runs
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Jordan Walker's two-run home run (24)2026-08-16 · Jordan Walker drove in 4 runs
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Jordan Walker's four hits propel Cardinals to win2026-05-01 · Jordan Walker — a bench bat with 31 games played — went a perfect 4-for-4
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 162 team games; 73 in 2001