88% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Junior Caminero is top-10 in the majors in home runs, total bases and RBI (and 1 other board)
He is 3rd in home runs at 40, 3rd in total bases at 300, 8th in RBI at 95 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED hitter in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
Same case as last night, moved numbers: his headline number went from 39 to 40 since September 10.
The case in 30 seconds
- 40 3rd in home runs at 40, 3rd in total bases at 300, 8th in RBI at 95 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- OPS .899 — 5th of 49 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 643 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: vs Houston Astros. 50 more to reach 350 TB.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 3rd in home runs at 40, 3rd in total bases at 300, 8th in RBI at 95 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- OPS .899 — 5th of 49 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Junior Caminero sits 5th in OPS among 49 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board.
The evidence
Tracked on Live Chases
- 62+2 Home Runs Significant · MILESTONE No. 3 of 3home runs chases 40 record 73 — Barry Bonds, 2001 44projected, against 50 · extreme
- 62+1 Total Bases Significant · MILESTONE No. 3 of 3total bases chases 300 record 457 — Babe Ruth, 1921 331projected, against 350 · near pace
The score is an editorial score, not a measurement on a common scale. The rank above is this player's position on his own category's board — the ordering the site stands behind. See all tracked chases →
What changed last night
1 HR, 2 RBI
W 3-1 vs Houston Astros · 2026-09-11
carries a .279 average into today
What to watch next
vs Houston Astros
Tropicana Field · 6:10 p.m. ET
Facing Peter Lambert
Junior Caminero faces a right-hander in Peter Lambert. He is hitting .275 with 32 home runs in 422 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 422 | .275 | 32 | 79 | .884 |
| vs LHP | 140 | .293 | 8 | 16 | .938 |
| Home | 268 | .287 | 21 | 52 | .954 |
| Away | 294 | .272 | 19 | 43 | .849 |
| Day | 219 | .269 | 16 | 35 | .879 |
| Night | 343 | .286 | 24 | 60 | .912 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
147G
562AB
157H
.279AVG
40HR
95RBI
3SB
212B
13B
.899OPS
Chasing .400
.279Current AVG
114Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
108-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.596Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (91-for-57)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .279 | .279 | 1.053 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .279 | .279 | 1.386 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .279 | .279 | 1.596 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .279 | .279 | 1.667 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .279 | .279 | 2.316 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 40 | 44 | 10 in 15 g · 1 per 5.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 40 | 44 | 20 in 15 g · 1 per 2.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 40 | 44 | 22 in 15 g · 1 per 2.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 40 | 44 | 30 in 15 g · 1 per 1.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 40 | 44 | 33 in 15 g · 1 per 1.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 157 | 173 | 43 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 157 | 173 | 68 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 157 | 173 | 93 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 157 | 173 | 105 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 3 | 3 | 47 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 3 | 3 | 77 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 3 | 3 | 97 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 3 | 3 | 127 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 21 | 23 | 29 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 21 | 23 | 39 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 21 | 23 | 46 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 95 | 105 | 30 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 95 | 105 | 55 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 95 | 105 | 80 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 95 | 105 | 96 in 15 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
100%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 62.210 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 56.480 after regressing toward the league's 30.170 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 43.1, against a straight team-game pace of 44. Exact beta-binomial over 66 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
87.6%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.5%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=202); median finish 42. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Houston Astros | W 3-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .279 |
| 2026-09-10 | Atlanta Braves | L 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .280 |
| 2026-09-09 | Atlanta Braves | W 7-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .281 |
| 2026-09-08 | Atlanta Braves | W 7-1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .282 |
| 2026-09-06 | Texas Rangers | L 6-8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .280 |
| 2026-09-05 | Texas Rangers | W 6-3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .281 |
| 2026-09-04 | Texas Rangers | W 7-6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .280 |
| 2026-09-02 | New York Mets | L 4-10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .279 |
| 2026-09-01 | New York Mets | W 6-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .281 |
| 2026-08-31 | New York Mets | L 2-3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .283 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 147 team games; 64 in 2001