40 HR, 30 SB, and 100 RBI
Why he matters right now
Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the majors in runs and total bases
Through 143 games he is first in runs and total bases — the kind of line that decides awards.
This has been his headline for 5 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 105 No. 1 in runs and total bases on MLB's own leaderboards — 105 runs, 313 total bases MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- OPS .943 — 2nd of 50 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
- 39 39 home runs, past his previous best of 31 in 2025; 105 runs, past his previous best of 91 in 2025; 154 hits, past his previous best of 146 in 2025 year-by-year record, 2 prior seasons since 2024 (MLB Stats API, cached)
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 641 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: at Miami Marlins. 15 more to reach 120 RUNS.
Every claim above, with its source (5)
- No. 1 in runs and total bases on MLB's own leaderboards — 105 runs, 313 total bases MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- No. 1 in runs on MLB's leaderboard MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- No. 1 in total bases on MLB's leaderboard MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- OPS .943 — 2nd of 50 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
- 39 home runs, past his previous best of 31 in 2025; 105 runs, past his previous best of 91 in 2025; 154 hits, past his previous best of 146 in 2025 year-by-year record, 2 prior seasons since 2024 (MLB Stats API, cached)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits 2nd in OPS among 50 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board; Pete Crow-Armstrong has already passed his career best in home runs.
The evidence
Tracked on Live Chases
- 78-1 30/30 Club Historic · NEAR HISTORIC only one tracked 39/33 record 54/59 — Shohei Ohtani, 2024 44/37projected, against 30/30 · achieved
- 68 Total Bases Significant · MILESTONE No. 1 of 3total bases chases 313 record 457 — Babe Ruth, 1921 355projected, against 350 · on pace
- 62 Home Runs Significant · MILESTONE No. 2 of 3home runs chases 39 record 73 — Barry Bonds, 2001 44projected, against 50 · extreme
- 61-1 Runs Significant · MILESTONE No. 1 of 3runs chases 105 record 177 — Babe Ruth, 1921 119projected, against 120 · near pace
The score is an editorial score, not a measurement on a common scale. The rank above is this player's position on his own category's board — the ordering the site stands behind. See all tracked chases →
What changed last night
1 RBI
W 6-5 vs Miami Marlins · 2026-09-05
carries a .279 average into today
What to watch next
at Miami Marlins
loanDepot park · 1:40 p.m. ET
Facing Tyler Phillips
Pete Crow-Armstrong faces a right-hander in Tyler Phillips. He is hitting .270 with 28 home runs in 374 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 374 | .270 | 28 | 60 | .939 |
| vs LHP | 177 | .299 | 11 | 34 | .952 |
| Home | 269 | .309 | 24 | 52 | 1.040 |
| Away | 282 | .252 | 15 | 42 | .850 |
| Day | 230 | .261 | 13 | 36 | .850 |
| Night | 321 | .293 | 26 | 58 | 1.010 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
143G
551AB
154H
.279AVG
39HR
94RBI
33SB
282B
73B
.943OPS
Chasing .400
.279Current AVG
111Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
107-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.315Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (96-for-73)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .279 | .279 | .890 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .279 | .279 | 1.151 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .279 | .279 | 1.315 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .279 | .279 | 1.370 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .279 | .279 | 1.877 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 39 | 44 | 11 in 19 g · 1 per 6.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 39 | 44 | 21 in 19 g · 1 per 3.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 39 | 44 | 23 in 19 g · 1 per 3.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 39 | 44 | 31 in 19 g · 1 per 2.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 39 | 44 | 34 in 19 g · 1 per 2.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 154 | 174 | 46 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 154 | 174 | 71 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 154 | 174 | 96 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 154 | 174 | 108 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 33 | 37 | 17 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 33 | 37 | 47 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 33 | 37 | 67 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 33 | 37 | 97 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 28 | 32 | 22 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 28 | 32 | 32 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 28 | 32 | 39 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 7 | 8 | 13 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 7 | 8 | 18 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 7 | 8 | 29 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 94 | 106 | 31 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 94 | 106 | 56 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 94 | 106 | 81 in 19 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 94 | 106 | 97 in 19 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
93%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 60.840 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 55.340 after regressing toward the league's 30.150 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 42.9, against a straight team-game pace of 44. Exact beta-binomial over 85 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
76.8%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.4%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=233); median finish 41. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Miami Marlins | W 6-5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .279 |
| 2026-09-04 | Miami Marlins | W 6-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .280 |
| 2026-09-02 | Milwaukee Brewers | L 5-9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .280 |
| 2026-09-01 | Milwaukee Brewers | L 4-9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .280 |
| 2026-08-31 | Milwaukee Brewers | W 17-3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .280 |
| 2026-08-30 | Cincinnati Reds | L 5-7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .283 |
| 2026-08-29 | Cincinnati Reds | W 17-5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .282 |
| 2026-08-28 | Cincinnati Reds | L 8-10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .277 |
| 2026-08-26 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .276 |
| 2026-08-25 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 4-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .276 |
Recent highlights
▶︎
Pete Crow-Armstrong's leadoff home run (37)2026-08-30 · Pete Crow-Armstrong hit 2 home runs
▶︎
Pete Crow-Armstrong's second home run of the night (38)2026-08-30 · Pete Crow-Armstrong led off the game with a home run
▶︎
Pete Crow-Armstrong's THIRD homer of the game! (36)2026-08-29 · Pete Crow-Armstrong hit 3 home runs — three-homer games happen roughly 15 times a season
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
84% season-shape match
Through 143 team games; 60 in 2001