84% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Jackson Chourio sits 19th of 48 in OPS among qualified hitters on this site's tracked board
No MLB leaderboard lead, no live chase and no milestone in range — a .285 average; 24 home runs; 70 RBI; 21 stolen bases. The numbers below are the whole story, and a season that does not make a claim is a perfectly normal thing for a big-league season to be.
New on this page tonight.
The case in 30 seconds
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 19th of 48 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .285 .825 OPS, 24 home runs, 70 RBI and 21 stolen bases over 121 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
No thesis is not the same as no value. This page reports what cleared its evidence bar; a season can matter to a team in ways a leaderboard does not record.
What to watch next
Next up: at Philadelphia Phillies.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 19th of 48 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .825 OPS, 24 home runs, 70 RBI and 21 stolen bases over 121 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What to watch next
at Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park · 6:40 p.m. ET
Facing Zack Wheeler
Jackson Chourio faces a right-hander in Zack Wheeler. He is hitting .271 with 16 home runs in 358 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 358 | .271 | 16 | 52 | .779 |
| vs LHP | 147 | .320 | 8 | 18 | .938 |
| Home | 237 | .300 | 15 | 41 | .917 |
| Away | 268 | .272 | 9 | 29 | .741 |
| Day | 169 | .231 | 5 | 18 | .682 |
| Night | 336 | .313 | 19 | 52 | .898 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
121G
505AB
144H
.285AVG
24HR
70RBI
21SB
272B
03B
.825OPS
Chasing .400
.285Current AVG
97Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
98-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
3.474Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (66-for-19)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .285 | .285 | 2.105 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .285 | .285 | 2.947 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .285 | .285 | 3.474 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .285 | .285 | 3.632 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .285 | .285 | 5.316 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 24 | 25 | 26 in 6 g · 1 per 0.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 24 | 25 | 36 in 6 g · 1 per 0.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 24 | 25 | 38 in 6 g · 1 per 0.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 24 | 25 | 46 in 6 g · 1 per 0.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 24 | 25 | 49 in 6 g · 1 per 0.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 144 | 150 | 56 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 144 | 150 | 81 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 144 | 150 | 106 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 144 | 150 | 118 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 21 | 22 | 29 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 21 | 22 | 59 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 21 | 22 | 79 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 21 | 22 | 109 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 27 | 28 | 23 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 27 | 28 | 33 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 27 | 28 | 40 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 0 | 0 | 25 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 0 | 0 | 36 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 70 | 73 | 55 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 70 | 73 | 80 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 70 | 73 | 105 in 6 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 70 | 73 | 121 in 6 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 43.400 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 40.740 after regressing toward the league's 30.220 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 24.7, against a straight team-game pace of 25. Exact beta-binomial over 21 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Recent highlights
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Jackson Chourio's go-ahead two-run single2026-09-07 · Jackson Chourio's go-ahead single in the 8th put the Brewers ahead for good in a 4-3 win over the Cubs
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Jackson Chourio's second two-run home run (19)2026-08-27 · Jackson Chourio hit 2 home runs, driving in 4
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Condensed Game: MIL@STL - 5/4/262026-05-04 · Jackson Chourio — a bench bat with 1 game played — went a perfect 4-for-4
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 156 team games; 69 in 2001