n=170 near this checkpoint
Why he matters right now
Paul Skenes sits 22nd of 22 in ERA among qualified pitchers on this site's tracked board
1 live chase on the board, but nothing that clears the bar for a headline — 181 strikeouts; 155 innings; 29 starts. The numbers below are the whole story, and a season that does not make a claim is a perfectly normal thing for a big-league season to be.
The case in 30 seconds
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 22nd of 22 in the qualified population; checked 5 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- 3.83 ERA over 155 innings, with 181 strikeouts, 29 starts and a 1.15 WHIP snapshot pitching board — the union of MLB's top-10 pitching boards, then MLB's 1.0 IP per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
No thesis is not the same as no value. This page reports what cleared its evidence bar; a season can matter to a team in ways a leaderboard does not record.
What to watch next
Next up: at Chicago Cubs. 19 more to reach 200 SO.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 22nd of 22 in the qualified population; checked 5 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- ERA over 155 innings, with 181 strikeouts, 29 starts and a 1.15 WHIP snapshot pitching board — the union of MLB's top-10 pitching boards, then MLB's 1.0 IP per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What to watch next
at Chicago Cubs
Wrigley Field · 2:20 p.m. ET
Opposite Clay Holmes
Announced to start at Chicago Cubs.
Situational splits
| Split | IP | ERA | SO | WHIP | AVG against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 62.2 | — | 79 | 1.16 | .245 |
| vs LHP | 91.2 | — | 102 | 1.15 | .221 |
| Home | 87.2 | 3.70 | 110 | 1.12 | .228 |
| Away | 67.1 | 4.01 | 71 | 1.19 | .235 |
| Day | 52.2 | 4.44 | 61 | 1.31 | .267 |
| Night | 102.1 | 3.52 | 120 | 1.07 | .211 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
29G
29GS
155.0IP
10-11W-L
3.83ERA
1.15WHIP
181K
10.51K/9
0SV
Strikeout chase
| Chase | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200 K | 181 | 198 | 19 K · 7.0 per outing over 2.7 left | NEAR PACE |
| 250 K | 181 | 198 | 69 K · 25.6 per outing over 2.7 left | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 300 K | 181 | 198 | 119 K · 44.1 per outing over 2.7 left | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 350 K | 181 | 198 | 169 K · 62.6 per outing over 2.7 left | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 383 K | 181 | 198 | 202 K · 74.8 per outing over 2.7 left | IMPOSSIBLE |
ERA & WHIP finish lines
| Finish | Current | Required rest-of-season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sub-2.00 ERA | 3.83 | -17.37 over about 15 innings | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-1.75 ERA | 3.83 | -20.26 over about 15 innings | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-1.50 ERA | 3.83 | -23.16 over about 15 innings | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-1.00 WHIP | 1.15 | -0.57 | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-0.90 WHIP | 1.15 | -1.73 | IMPOSSIBLE |
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Los Angeles Angels | W 1-0 | 5.1 | 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | Detroit Tigers | W 4-3 | 4.1 | 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | Miami Marlins | L 0-2 | 5.0 | 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Milwaukee Brewers | L 2-4 | 5.0 | 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | Cincinnati Reds | L 7-8 | 4.0 | 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | Chicago Cubs | L 0-11 | 5.1 | 11 |
| 2026-07-19 | Cleveland Guardians | W 7-1 | 7.0 | 8 |
| 2026-07-11 | Milwaukee Brewers | W 7-6 | 5.1 | 7 |
| 2026-07-07 | Atlanta Braves | W 12-4 | 6.0 | 4 |
Recent highlights
▶︎
Paul Skenes twirls 5 1/3 scoreless innings vs. Angels2026-09-06 · Paul Skenes went 5.1 scoreless
▶︎
Paul Skenes strikes out four over six scoreless2026-08-25 · Paul Skenes went 6.0 scoreless
▶︎
Paul Skenes strikes out 10 in Pirates' 3-1 victory2026-05-12 · Paul Skenes carried a NO-HITTER into the 7th — broken up by a single
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Chase history
Stuff watch
Four-seamer velocity, start by start
Every start's average against his own trailing baseline of 96.7 ± 0.37 mph. Ringed dots sit more than one standard deviation under the baseline; last start 96.65 mph (2026-09-06).
No active signals — inside one standard deviation of his own baseline. A trend report, not a diagnosis.