Chase Burns headshot

Chase Burns

Cincinnati Reds · through 2026-10-30

On the league boards

Why he matters right now

Chase Burns is top-10 in the majors in wins

He is 6th in wins at 15 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED pitcher in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.

This has been his headline for 29 straight days.

The case in 30 seconds

  • 15 6th in wins at 15 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
  • 2.86 ERA over 154 innings, with 185 strikeouts, 29 starts and a 1.17 WHIP snapshot pitching board — the union of MLB's top-10 pitching boards, then MLB's 1.0 IP per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool

The honest caveat

A top-ten finish is a position on a board, not a verdict on a player. The men just below him on it are not meaningfully worse, and one good week moves several places.

Every claim above, with its source (2)
  1. 6th in wins at 15 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
  2. ERA over 154 innings, with 185 strikeouts, 29 starts and a 1.17 WHIP snapshot pitching board — the union of MLB's top-10 pitching boards, then MLB's 1.0 IP per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool

The evidence

29G
29GS
154.1IP
15-3W-L
2.86ERA
1.17WHIP
185K
10.79K/9
0SV

Strikeout chase

ChaseCurrentPaceNeeded from hereStatus
200 K 185 185 15 K · — per team game IMPOSSIBLE
250 K 185 185 65 K · — per team game IMPOSSIBLE
300 K 185 185 115 K · — per team game IMPOSSIBLE
350 K 185 185 165 K · — per team game IMPOSSIBLE
383 K 185 185 198 K · — per team game IMPOSSIBLE

ERA & WHIP finish lines

FinishCurrentRequired rest-of-seasonStatus
Sub-2.00 ERA2.86 — IMPOSSIBLE
Sub-1.75 ERA2.86 — IMPOSSIBLE
Sub-1.50 ERA2.86 — IMPOSSIBLE
Sub-1.00 WHIP1.17 — IMPOSSIBLE
Sub-0.90 WHIP1.17 — IMPOSSIBLE

Recent game log

Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.

DateOppResultIPK
2026-09-18 Chicago Cubs W 6-4 3.04
2026-09-13 Milwaukee Brewers W 4-3 3.05
2026-09-07 Los Angeles Dodgers L 3-6 3.05
2026-08-19 St. Louis Cardinals W 5-4 5.08
2026-08-14 Miami Marlins W 1-0 7.08
2026-08-08 Washington Nationals L 2-8 5.16
2026-08-02 Pittsburgh Pirates W 10-2 6.09
2026-07-28 Cleveland Guardians L 5-6 5.04
2026-07-21 Seattle Mariners W 4-2 5.06
2026-07-08 Philadelphia Phillies W 11-5 5.02

Recent highlights

Lahman + Retrosheet context

How this season fits history

Comparable finishesMedian 210 K

n=156 near this checkpoint

Chase history

11615018507-0510-30
Strikeouts, day by day
18519821107-0510-30
Projected season K, day by day

Stuff watch

Four-seamer velocity, start by start

Every start's average against his own trailing baseline of 97.5 ± 0.59 mph. Ringed dots sit more than one standard deviation under the baseline; last start 98.0 mph (2026-09-18).

99962026-03-30: 98.3 mph (n=49)2026-04-05: 98.67 mph (n=45)2026-04-10: 98.46 mph (n=49)2026-04-16: 97.55 mph (n=55)2026-04-21: 97.46 mph (n=52)2026-04-28: 98.46 mph (n=50)2026-05-03: 98.07 mph (n=48)2026-05-09: 97.96 mph (n=50)2026-05-14: 97.45 mph (n=61)2026-05-19: 98.39 mph (n=49)2026-05-26: 98.04 mph (n=58)2026-06-03: 97.8 mph (n=51)2026-06-09: 97.38 mph (n=58)2026-06-15: 97.57 mph (n=62)2026-06-21: 97.1 mph (n=44)2026-06-27: 97.46 mph (n=52)2026-07-02: 97.11 mph (n=61)2026-07-08: 97.96 mph (n=63)2026-07-21: 96.88 mph (n=52)2026-07-28: 96.7 mph (n=43)2026-08-02: 96.21 mph (n=49)2026-09-07: 97.83 mph (n=22)2026-09-13: 97.31 mph (n=30)2026-09-18: 98.0 mph (n=31)

No active signals — inside one standard deviation of his own baseline. A trend report, not a diagnosis.