88% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Colson Montgomery sits 42nd of 52 in OPS among qualified hitters on this site's tracked board
No MLB leaderboard lead, no live chase and no milestone in range — a .213 average; 30 home runs; 81 RBI; 1 stolen base. The numbers below are the whole story, and a season that does not make a claim is a perfectly normal thing for a big-league season to be.
This has been his headline for 24 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 42nd of 52 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .213 .730 OPS, 30 home runs, 81 RBI and 1 stolen base over 133 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
No thesis is not the same as no value. This page reports what cleared its evidence bar; a season can matter to a team in ways a leaderboard does not record.
What to watch next
Next up: vs Minnesota Twins.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 42nd of 52 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .730 OPS, 30 home runs, 81 RBI and 1 stolen base over 133 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
1 HR, 2 RBI
W 4-1 vs Minnesota Twins · 2026-09-04
carries a .213 average into today
What to watch next
vs Minnesota Twins
Rate Field · 7:10 p.m. ET
Facing Taj Bradley
Colson Montgomery faces a right-hander in Taj Bradley. He is hitting .192 with 20 home runs in 349 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 349 | .192 | 20 | 51 | .677 |
| vs LHP | 153 | .261 | 10 | 30 | .851 |
| Home | 238 | .202 | 12 | 30 | .661 |
| Away | 264 | .223 | 18 | 51 | .791 |
| Day | 207 | .203 | 12 | 27 | .727 |
| Night | 295 | .220 | 18 | 54 | .731 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
133G
502AB
107H
.213AVG
30HR
81RBI
1SB
222B
03B
.730OPS
Chasing .400
.213Current AVG
157Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
134-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.653Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (124-for-75)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .213 | .213 | 1.267 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .213 | .213 | 1.507 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .213 | .213 | 1.653 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .213 | .213 | 1.707 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .213 | .213 | 2.160 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 30 | 34 | 20 in 21 g · 1 per 3.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 30 | 34 | 30 in 21 g · 1 per 2.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 30 | 34 | 32 in 21 g · 1 per 2.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 30 | 34 | 40 in 21 g · 1 per 1.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 30 | 34 | 43 in 21 g · 1 per 1.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 107 | 123 | 93 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 107 | 123 | 118 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 107 | 123 | 143 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 107 | 123 | 155 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 1 | 1 | 49 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 1 | 1 | 79 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 1 | 1 | 99 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 1 | 1 | 129 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 22 | 25 | 28 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 22 | 25 | 38 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 22 | 25 | 45 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 0 | 0 | 25 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 0 | 0 | 36 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 81 | 93 | 44 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 81 | 93 | 69 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 81 | 93 | 94 in 21 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 81 | 93 | 110 in 21 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 53.380 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 48.740 after regressing toward the league's 30.130 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 33.4, against a straight team-game pace of 34. Exact beta-binomial over 84 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
1.7%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=665); median finish 33. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Minnesota Twins | W 4-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .213 |
| 2026-09-02 | Houston Astros | L 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .213 |
| 2026-09-01 | Houston Astros | W 5-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .215 |
| 2026-08-31 | Houston Astros | L 3-6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | .216 |
| 2026-08-30 | Minnesota Twins | L 1-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .211 |
| 2026-08-29 | Minnesota Twins | W 3-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .213 |
| 2026-08-28 | Minnesota Twins | W 7-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .214 |
| 2026-08-25 | Texas Rangers | W 11-7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .211 |
| 2026-08-24 | Texas Rangers | L 2-11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .211 |
| 2026-08-23 | New York Mets | W 2-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .213 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 141 team games; 60 in 2001