83% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Colson Montgomery has gone quiet
Colson Montgomery has 31 home runs and none in 21 games — the longest quiet stretch of his season.
This has been his headline for 35 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- .197 .685 OPS, 31 home runs, 87 RBI and 1 stolen base over 153 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
A measured change is not a prediction. Pitchers give back velocity in August for reasons that range from fatigue to deliberate pacing.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- Colson Montgomery has 31 home runs and none in 21 games — the longest quiet stretch of his season. nightly anomaly scan (drought detector), player id matched
- .685 OPS, 31 home runs, 87 RBI and 1 stolen base over 153 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
Tracked on Live Chases
- Batter Strikeouts Iconic · NEGATIVE HISTORY only one tracked 227 record 223 — Mark Reynolds, 2009 227projected
The score is an editorial score, not a measurement on a common scale. The rank above is this player's position on his own category's board — the ordering the site stands behind. See all tracked chases →
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 391 | .179 | 21 | 53 | .644 |
| vs LHP | 177 | .237 | 10 | 34 | .778 |
| Home | 276 | .192 | 13 | 35 | .634 |
| Away | 292 | .202 | 18 | 52 | .733 |
| Day | 225 | .191 | 12 | 27 | .691 |
| Night | 343 | .201 | 19 | 60 | .681 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
153G
568AB
112H
.197AVG
31HR
87RBI
1SB
242B
03B
.685OPS
Chasing .400
.197Current AVG
193Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
156-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
—Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (116-for-0)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .197 | .197 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .197 | .197 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .197 | .197 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .197 | .197 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .197 | .197 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 31 | 31 | 19 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 HR | 60 | 31 | 31 | 29 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 62 HR | 62 | 31 | 31 | 31 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 70 HR | 70 | 31 | 31 | 39 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 73 HR | 73 | 31 | 31 | 42 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 112 | 112 | 88 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 112 | 112 | 113 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 112 | 112 | 138 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 112 | 112 | 150 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 SB | 50 | 1 | 1 | 49 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 80 SB | 80 | 1 | 1 | 79 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 100 SB | 100 | 1 | 1 | 99 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 130 SB | 130 | 1 | 1 | 129 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 2B | 50 | 24 | 24 | 26 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 2B | 60 | 24 | 24 | 36 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 67 2B | 67 | 24 | 24 | 43 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 20 3B | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 25 3B | 25 | 0 | 0 | 25 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 36 3B | 36 | 0 | 0 | 36 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 87 | 87 | 38 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 87 | 87 | 63 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 87 | 87 | 88 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 87 | 87 | 104 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 48.590 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 45.280 after regressing toward the league's 30.200 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 31.0, against a straight team-game pace of 31. Exact beta-binomial over 0 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=797); median finish 31. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 (6d) | — | — | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .197 |
| 2026-09-25 | Colorado Rockies | W 6-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .199 |
| 2026-09-24 | Kansas City Royals | W 9-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .200 |
| 2026-09-23 | Kansas City Royals | L 4-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .202 |
| 2026-09-22 | Kansas City Royals | W 14-11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .203 |
| 2026-09-20 | Detroit Tigers | W 8-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .205 |
| 2026-09-19 | Detroit Tigers | W 3-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .204 |
| 2026-09-18 | Detroit Tigers | L 8-11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .206 |
| 2026-09-16 | Cleveland Guardians | L 3-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .203 |
| 2026-09-15 | Cleveland Guardians | L 6-7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .204 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 162 team games; 73 in 2001