90% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Colson Montgomery sits 43rd of 49 in OPS among qualified hitters on this site's tracked board
No MLB leaderboard lead, no live chase and no milestone in range — a .208 average; 31 home runs; 83 RBI; 1 stolen base. The numbers below are the whole story, and a season that does not make a claim is a perfectly normal thing for a big-league season to be.
The story changed tonight — this page led with a different case yesterday.
The case in 30 seconds
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 43rd of 49 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .208 .717 OPS, 31 home runs, 83 RBI and 1 stolen base over 139 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
No thesis is not the same as no value. This page reports what cleared its evidence bar; a season can matter to a team in ways a leaderboard does not record.
What to watch next
Next up: at St. Louis Cardinals.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 43rd of 49 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .717 OPS, 31 home runs, 83 RBI and 1 stolen base over 139 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
0-for-4
L 3-7 vs St. Louis Cardinals · 2026-09-11
carries a .208 average into today
What to watch next
at St. Louis Cardinals
Busch Stadium · 7:15 p.m. ET
Facing Kyle Leahy
Colson Montgomery faces a right-hander in Kyle Leahy. He is hitting .190 with 21 home runs in 364 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 364 | .190 | 21 | 53 | .675 |
| vs LHP | 161 | .248 | 10 | 30 | .811 |
| Home | 257 | .195 | 13 | 32 | .647 |
| Away | 268 | .220 | 18 | 51 | .783 |
| Day | 207 | .203 | 12 | 27 | .727 |
| Night | 318 | .211 | 19 | 56 | .709 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
139G
525AB
109H
.208AVG
31HR
83RBI
1SB
232B
03B
.717OPS
Chasing .400
.208Current AVG
169Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
141-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
2.278Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (123-for-54)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .208 | .208 | 1.741 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .208 | .208 | 2.074 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .208 | .208 | 2.278 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .208 | .208 | 2.352 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .208 | .208 | 2.981 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 31 | 34 | 19 in 15 g · 1 per 2.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 31 | 34 | 29 in 15 g · 1 per 1.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 31 | 34 | 31 in 15 g · 1 per 1.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 31 | 34 | 39 in 15 g · 1 per 1.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 31 | 34 | 42 in 15 g · 1 per 1.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 109 | 120 | 91 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 109 | 120 | 116 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 109 | 120 | 141 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 109 | 120 | 153 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 1 | 1 | 49 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 1 | 1 | 79 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 1 | 1 | 99 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 1 | 1 | 129 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 23 | 25 | 27 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 23 | 25 | 37 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 23 | 25 | 44 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 0 | 0 | 25 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 0 | 0 | 36 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 83 | 91 | 42 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 83 | 91 | 67 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 83 | 91 | 92 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 83 | 91 | 108 in 15 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 52.810 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 48.450 after regressing toward the league's 30.170 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 33.4, against a straight team-game pace of 34. Exact beta-binomial over 60 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
1.1%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=635); median finish 33. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 3-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .208 |
| 2026-09-10 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .209 |
| 2026-09-09 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .208 |
| 2026-09-08 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 3-9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .210 |
| 2026-09-06 | Minnesota Twins | W 10-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .212 |
| 2026-09-05 | Minnesota Twins | L 4-6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .213 |
| 2026-09-04 | Minnesota Twins | W 4-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .213 |
| 2026-09-02 | Houston Astros | L 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .213 |
| 2026-09-01 | Houston Astros | W 5-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .215 |
| 2026-08-31 | Houston Astros | L 3-6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | .216 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 147 team games; 64 in 2001