85% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Hunter Goodman has already passed his career best in home runs
He has 41; his previous best was 31, in 2025. That is measured over the two seasons of at least 200 at-bats he has played. He is also past his best in runs.
This has been his headline for 45 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 41 41 home runs, past his previous best of 31 in 2025; 84 runs, past his previous best of 73 in 2025 year-by-year record, 2 prior seasons since 2024 (MLB Stats API, cached)
- 41 6th in home runs at 41 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
The honest caveat
A career-best total is measured against his own record and nobody else's, and for most players that record is short. Beating it says this year is his best; it says nothing about where the season sits in the league, and a young player passing an early-career mark is closer to normal than to remarkable.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 41 home runs, past his previous best of 31 in 2025; 84 runs, past his previous best of 73 in 2025 year-by-year record, 2 prior seasons since 2024 (MLB Stats API, cached)
- 6th in home runs at 41 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Hunter Goodman is top-10 in the majors in home runs.
The evidence
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 351 | .242 | 29 | 58 | .835 |
| vs LHP | 167 | .251 | 12 | 30 | .848 |
| Home | 243 | .235 | 16 | 36 | .791 |
| Away | 275 | .255 | 25 | 52 | .882 |
| Day | 157 | .236 | 11 | 23 | .781 |
| Night | 361 | .249 | 30 | 65 | .864 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
138G
518AB
127H
.245AVG
41HR
88RBI
5SB
202B
23B
.839OPS
Chasing .400
.245Current AVG
134Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
121-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
—Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (81-for-0)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .245 | .245 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .245 | .245 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .245 | .245 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .245 | .245 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .245 | .245 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 41 | 41 | 9 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 HR | 60 | 41 | 41 | 19 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 62 HR | 62 | 41 | 41 | 21 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 70 HR | 70 | 41 | 41 | 29 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 73 HR | 73 | 41 | 41 | 32 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 127 | 127 | 73 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 127 | 127 | 98 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 127 | 127 | 123 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 127 | 127 | 135 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 SB | 50 | 5 | 5 | 45 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 80 SB | 80 | 5 | 5 | 75 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 100 SB | 100 | 5 | 5 | 95 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 130 SB | 130 | 5 | 5 | 125 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 2B | 50 | 20 | 20 | 30 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 2B | 60 | 20 | 20 | 40 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 67 2B | 67 | 20 | 20 | 47 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 20 3B | 20 | 2 | 2 | 18 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 25 3B | 25 | 2 | 2 | 23 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 36 3B | 36 | 2 | 2 | 34 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 88 | 88 | 37 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 88 | 88 | 62 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 88 | 88 | 87 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 88 | 88 | 103 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
How likely is the finish?
100%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 71.430 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 63.340 after regressing toward the league's 30.200 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 41.0, against a straight team-game pace of 41. Exact beta-binomial over 0 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
77.9%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=226); median finish 41. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 (6d) | — | — | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .245 |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicago White Sox | L 1-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .245 |
| 2026-09-24 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 8-12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .245 |
| 2026-09-23 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 3-5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .246 |
| 2026-09-22 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 2-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .243 |
| 2026-09-20 | Seattle Mariners | L 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .245 |
| 2026-09-19 | Seattle Mariners | W 5-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .245 |
| 2026-09-18 | Seattle Mariners | L 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .244 |
| 2026-09-14 | San Diego Padres | L 7-8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .245 |
| 2026-09-12 | Detroit Tigers | L 7-11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .242 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 162 team games; 73 in 2001