86% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Hunter Goodman has already passed his career best in home runs
He has 37; his previous best was 31, in 2025. That is measured over the two seasons of at least 200 at-bats he has played.
The story changed tonight — this page led with a different case yesterday.
The case in 30 seconds
- 37 37 home runs, past his previous best of 31 in 2025 year-by-year record, 2 prior seasons since 2024 (MLB Stats API, cached)
- 37 6th in home runs at 37 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
The honest caveat
A career-best total is measured against his own record and nobody else's, and for most players that record is short. Beating it says this year is his best; it says nothing about where the season sits in the league, and a young player passing an early-career mark is closer to normal than to remarkable.
What to watch next
Next up: at Detroit Tigers.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 37 home runs, past his previous best of 31 in 2025 year-by-year record, 2 prior seasons since 2024 (MLB Stats API, cached)
- 6th in home runs at 37 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Hunter Goodman is top-10 in the majors in home runs.
The evidence
What changed last night
0-for-4
L 2-6 vs Detroit Tigers · 2026-09-11
carries a .242 average into today
What to watch next
at Detroit Tigers
Comerica Park · 1:10 p.m. ET
Facing Andrew Sears
Hunter Goodman faces a left-hander in Andrew Sears. He is hitting .258 with 10 home runs in 155 at-bats against left-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 320 | .234 | 27 | 52 | .818 |
| vs LHP | 155 | .258 | 10 | 26 | .840 |
| Home | 216 | .227 | 15 | 33 | .784 |
| Away | 259 | .255 | 22 | 45 | .861 |
| Day | 141 | .241 | 9 | 18 | .775 |
| Night | 334 | .243 | 28 | 60 | .847 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
127G
475AB
115H
.242AVG
37HR
78RBI
5SB
182B
13B
.826OPS
Chasing .400
.242Current AVG
125Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
115-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.979Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (95-for-48)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .242 | .242 | 1.438 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .242 | .242 | 1.750 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .242 | .242 | 1.979 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .242 | .242 | 2.042 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .242 | .242 | 2.688 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 37 | 41 | 13 in 15 g · 1 per 3.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 37 | 41 | 23 in 15 g · 1 per 2.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 37 | 41 | 25 in 15 g · 1 per 1.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 37 | 41 | 33 in 15 g · 1 per 1.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 37 | 41 | 36 in 15 g · 1 per 1.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 115 | 127 | 85 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 115 | 127 | 110 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 115 | 127 | 135 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 115 | 127 | 147 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 5 | 6 | 45 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 5 | 6 | 75 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 5 | 6 | 95 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 5 | 6 | 125 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 18 | 20 | 32 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 18 | 20 | 42 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 18 | 20 | 49 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 78 | 86 | 47 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 78 | 86 | 72 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 78 | 86 | 97 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 78 | 86 | 113 in 15 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
34%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 70.340 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 61.900 after regressing toward the league's 30.170 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 39.7, against a straight team-game pace of 41. Exact beta-binomial over 54 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
46.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=302); median finish 39. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Detroit Tigers | L 2-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .242 |
| 2026-09-10 | New York Yankees | L 3-10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .244 |
| 2026-09-09 | New York Yankees | L 1-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .247 |
| 2026-09-08 | New York Yankees | L 3-5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .249 |
| 2026-09-06 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 8-10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .249 |
| 2026-09-05 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 10-7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .249 |
| 2026-09-04 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 6-7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .250 |
| 2026-09-01 | Baltimore Orioles | W 4-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .252 |
| 2026-08-31 | Baltimore Orioles | L 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .252 |
| 2026-08-30 | Atlanta Braves | L 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .254 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 147 team games; 64 in 2001