83% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Ben Rice is top-10 in the majors in home runs and total bases
He is 6th in home runs at 36, 7th in total bases at 269 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED hitter in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
The case in 30 seconds
- 36 6th in home runs at 36, 7th in total bases at 269 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .261 .883 OPS, 36 home runs, 88 RBI and 3 stolen bases over 136 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
A top-ten finish is a position on a board, not a verdict on a player. The men just below him on it are not meaningfully worse, and one good week moves several places.
What to watch next
Next up: at San Diego Padres.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 6th in home runs at 36, 7th in total bases at 269 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .883 OPS, 36 home runs, 88 RBI and 3 stolen bases over 136 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
3-for-3
W 5-1 vs San Diego Padres · 2026-09-05
carries a .261 average into today
What to watch next
at San Diego Padres
Petco Park · 4:10 p.m. ET
Facing Michael King
Ben Rice faces a right-hander in Michael King. He is hitting .265 with 26 home runs in 325 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 325 | .265 | 26 | 61 | .935 |
| vs LHP | 184 | .255 | 10 | 27 | .790 |
| Home | 225 | .244 | 18 | 40 | .886 |
| Away | 284 | .275 | 18 | 48 | .881 |
| Day | 176 | .250 | 15 | 37 | .918 |
| Night | 333 | .267 | 21 | 51 | .866 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
136G
509AB
133H
.261AVG
36HR
88RBI
3SB
222B
33B
.883OPS
Chasing .400
.261Current AVG
118Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
111-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.389Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (100-for-72)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .261 | .261 | .986 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .261 | .261 | 1.222 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .261 | .261 | 1.389 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .261 | .261 | 1.431 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .261 | .261 | 1.917 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 36 | 41 | 14 in 20 g · 1 per 5.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 36 | 41 | 24 in 20 g · 1 per 3.0 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 36 | 41 | 26 in 20 g · 1 per 2.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 36 | 41 | 34 in 20 g · 1 per 2.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 36 | 41 | 37 in 20 g · 1 per 1.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 133 | 152 | 67 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 133 | 152 | 92 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 133 | 152 | 117 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 133 | 152 | 129 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 3 | 3 | 47 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 3 | 3 | 77 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 3 | 3 | 97 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 3 | 3 | 127 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 22 | 25 | 28 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 22 | 25 | 38 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 22 | 25 | 45 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 3 | 3 | 17 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 3 | 3 | 22 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 3 | 3 | 33 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 88 | 100 | 37 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 88 | 100 | 62 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 88 | 100 | 87 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 88 | 100 | 103 in 20 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
34%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 61.430 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 55.400 after regressing toward the league's 30.150 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 39.8, against a straight team-game pace of 41. Exact beta-binomial over 83 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
46.1%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=306); median finish 39. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | San Diego Padres | W 5-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .261 |
| 2026-09-04 | San Diego Padres | L 2-3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .257 |
| 2026-09-01 | Los Angeles Angels | W 7-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .253 |
| 2026-08-31 | Los Angeles Angels | L 1-10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .252 |
| 2026-08-29 | Boston Red Sox | L 0-6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .254 |
| 2026-08-28 | Boston Red Sox | W 1-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .255 |
| 2026-08-27 | Houston Astros | L 1-5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .253 |
| 2026-08-26 | Houston Astros | W 9-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .251 |
| 2026-08-25 | Houston Astros | L 7-9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .249 |
| 2026-08-23 | Toronto Blue Jays | W 8-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .249 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 142 team games; 60 in 2001