83% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Ben Rice is top-10 in the majors in runs, home runs and total bases
He is 5th in runs at 105, 6th in home runs at 41, 6th in total bases at 306 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED hitter in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
This has been his headline for 35 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 105 5th in runs at 105, 6th in home runs at 41, 6th in total bases at 306 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- OPS .897 — 3rd of 49 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 667 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 5th in runs at 105, 6th in home runs at 41, 6th in total bases at 306 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- OPS .897 — 3rd of 49 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Ben Rice sits 3rd in OPS among 49 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board.
The evidence
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 374 | .273 | 30 | 66 | .961 |
| vs LHP | 199 | .246 | 11 | 31 | .773 |
| Home | 264 | .254 | 22 | 44 | .916 |
| Away | 309 | .272 | 19 | 53 | .879 |
| Day | 191 | .246 | 16 | 38 | .923 |
| Night | 382 | .272 | 25 | 59 | .884 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
154G
573AB
151H
.264AVG
41HR
97RBI
3SB
242B
43B
.897OPS
Chasing .400
.264Current AVG
131Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
119-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
20.000Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (80-for-4)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .264 | .264 | 12.750 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .264 | .264 | 17.250 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .264 | .264 | 20.000 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .264 | .264 | 21.000 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .264 | .264 | 29.500 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 41 | 41 | 9 in 1 g · 1 per 0.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 41 | 41 | 19 in 1 g · 1 per 0.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 41 | 41 | 21 in 1 g · 1 per 0.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 41 | 41 | 29 in 1 g · 1 per 0.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 41 | 41 | 32 in 1 g · 1 per 0.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 151 | 152 | 49 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 151 | 152 | 74 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 151 | 152 | 99 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 151 | 152 | 111 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 3 | 3 | 47 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 3 | 3 | 77 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 3 | 3 | 97 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 3 | 3 | 127 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 24 | 24 | 26 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 24 | 24 | 36 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 24 | 24 | 43 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 4 | 4 | 16 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 4 | 4 | 21 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 4 | 4 | 32 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 97 | 98 | 28 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 97 | 98 | 53 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 97 | 98 | 78 in 1 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 97 | 98 | 94 in 1 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
100%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 61.470 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 56.040 after regressing toward the league's 30.200 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 41.2, against a straight team-game pace of 41. Exact beta-binomial over 4 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
77.9%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=226); median finish 41. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Baltimore Orioles | L 2-10 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .264 |
| 2026-09-24 | Tampa Bay Rays | W 6-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .262 |
| 2026-09-23 | Tampa Bay Rays | W 9-2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .263 |
| 2026-09-22 | Tampa Bay Rays | W 2-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .260 |
| 2026-09-20 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 4-8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .261 |
| 2026-09-19 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 3-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .263 |
| 2026-09-18 | Arizona Diamondbacks | W 9-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .264 |
| 2026-09-16 | Minnesota Twins | L 4-5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | .262 |
| 2026-09-15 | Minnesota Twins | W 8-1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .262 |
| 2026-09-14 | Minnesota Twins | W 8-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .263 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 161 team games; 72 in 2001