85% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Jackson Merrill sits 39th of 49 in OPS among qualified hitters on this site's tracked board
No MLB leaderboard lead, no live chase and no milestone in range — a .254 average; 26 home runs; 87 RBI; 27 stolen bases. The numbers below are the whole story, and a season that does not make a claim is a perfectly normal thing for a big-league season to be.
This has been his headline for 82 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 39th of 49 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .254 .743 OPS, 26 home runs, 87 RBI and 27 stolen bases over 158 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
No thesis is not the same as no value. This page reports what cleared its evidence bar; a season can matter to a team in ways a leaderboard does not record.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 39th of 49 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .743 OPS, 26 home runs, 87 RBI and 27 stolen bases over 158 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 438 | .244 | 20 | 60 | .744 |
| vs LHP | 175 | .280 | 6 | 27 | .742 |
| Home | 295 | .258 | 11 | 45 | .756 |
| Away | 318 | .252 | 15 | 42 | .732 |
| Day | 223 | .283 | 14 | 38 | .884 |
| Night | 390 | .238 | 12 | 49 | .662 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
158G
613AB
156H
.254AVG
26HR
87RBI
27SB
262B
53B
.743OPS
Chasing .400
.254Current AVG
149Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
130-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
—Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (90-for-0)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .254 | .254 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .254 | .254 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .254 | .254 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .254 | .254 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .254 | .254 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 26 | 26 | 24 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 HR | 60 | 26 | 26 | 34 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 62 HR | 62 | 26 | 26 | 36 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 70 HR | 70 | 26 | 26 | 44 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 73 HR | 73 | 26 | 26 | 47 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 156 | 156 | 44 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 156 | 156 | 69 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 156 | 156 | 94 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 156 | 156 | 106 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 SB | 50 | 27 | 27 | 23 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 80 SB | 80 | 27 | 27 | 53 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 100 SB | 100 | 27 | 27 | 73 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 130 SB | 130 | 27 | 27 | 103 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 2B | 50 | 26 | 26 | 24 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 2B | 60 | 26 | 26 | 34 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 67 2B | 67 | 26 | 26 | 41 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 20 3B | 20 | 5 | 5 | 15 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 25 3B | 25 | 5 | 5 | 20 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 36 3B | 36 | 5 | 5 | 31 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 87 | 87 | 38 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 87 | 87 | 63 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 87 | 87 | 88 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 87 | 87 | 104 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 39.160 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 37.600 after regressing toward the league's 30.200 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 26.0, against a straight team-game pace of 26. Exact beta-binomial over 0 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1279); median finish 26. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 (6d) | — | — | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .254 |
| 2026-09-25 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 4-11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .253 |
| 2026-09-24 | Los Angeles Dodgers | W 4-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .252 |
| 2026-09-23 | Los Angeles Dodgers | W 5-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .252 |
| 2026-09-22 | Los Angeles Dodgers | L 0-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .254 |
| 2026-09-20 | Miami Marlins | W 7-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .255 |
| 2026-09-19 | Miami Marlins | W 7-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .255 |
| 2026-09-18 | Miami Marlins | W 8-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .256 |
| 2026-09-17 | Colorado Rockies | W 9-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .256 |
| 2026-09-16 | Colorado Rockies | W 9-3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .256 |
Recent highlights
▶︎
Jackson Merrill's two-run home run (23)2026-09-09 · Jackson Merrill hit 2 home runs, driving in 6
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Jackson Merrill's go-ahead home run (19)2026-08-10 · Jackson Merrill's go-ahead home run in the 7th put the Padres ahead for good against the Brewers
▶︎
Jackson Merrill's walk-off two-run double2026-04-15 ·
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 162 team games; 73 in 2001