84% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Jackson Merrill sits 46th of 51 in OPS among qualified hitters on this site's tracked board
No MLB leaderboard lead, no live chase and no milestone in range — a .238 average; 22 home runs; 70 RBI; 24 stolen bases. The numbers below are the whole story, and a season that does not make a claim is a perfectly normal thing for a big-league season to be.
This has been his headline for 27 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 46th of 51 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .238 .704 OPS, 22 home runs, 70 RBI and 24 stolen bases over 139 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
No thesis is not the same as no value. This page reports what cleared its evidence bar; a season can matter to a team in ways a leaderboard does not record.
What to watch next
Next up: vs New York Yankees.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 46th of 51 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .704 OPS, 22 home runs, 70 RBI and 24 stolen bases over 139 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
0-for-3
L 1-5 vs New York Yankees · 2026-09-05
carries a .238 average into today
What to watch next
vs New York Yankees
Petco Park · 4:10 p.m. ET
Facing Gerrit Cole
Jackson Merrill faces a right-hander in Gerrit Cole. He is hitting .222 with 18 home runs in 379 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 379 | .222 | 18 | 47 | .704 |
| vs LHP | 158 | .278 | 4 | 23 | .708 |
| Home | 262 | .240 | 8 | 34 | .703 |
| Away | 275 | .236 | 14 | 36 | .707 |
| Day | 195 | .267 | 11 | 25 | .819 |
| Night | 342 | .222 | 11 | 45 | .638 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
139G
537AB
128H
.238AVG
22HR
70RBI
24SB
222B
33B
.704OPS
Chasing .400
.238Current AVG
145Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
127-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.553Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (118-for-76)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .238 | .238 | 1.145 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .238 | .238 | 1.382 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .238 | .238 | 1.553 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .238 | .238 | 1.592 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .238 | .238 | 2.079 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 22 | 25 | 28 in 20 g · 1 per 2.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 22 | 25 | 38 in 20 g · 1 per 2.0 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 22 | 25 | 40 in 20 g · 1 per 1.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 22 | 25 | 48 in 20 g · 1 per 1.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 22 | 25 | 51 in 20 g · 1 per 1.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 128 | 146 | 72 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 128 | 146 | 97 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 128 | 146 | 122 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 128 | 146 | 134 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 24 | 27 | 26 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 24 | 27 | 56 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 24 | 27 | 76 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 24 | 27 | 106 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 22 | 25 | 28 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 22 | 25 | 38 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 22 | 25 | 45 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 3 | 3 | 17 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 3 | 3 | 22 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 3 | 3 | 33 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 70 | 80 | 55 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 70 | 80 | 80 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 70 | 80 | 105 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 70 | 80 | 121 in 20 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 37.670 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 36.220 after regressing toward the league's 30.150 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 24.5, against a straight team-game pace of 25. Exact beta-binomial over 82 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1637); median finish 24. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | New York Yankees | L 1-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .238 |
| 2026-09-04 | New York Yankees | W 3-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .240 |
| 2026-09-01 | Cincinnati Reds | L 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .241 |
| 2026-08-31 | Cincinnati Reds | W 5-0 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .242 |
| 2026-08-30 | Tampa Bay Rays | L 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .239 |
| 2026-08-29 | Tampa Bay Rays | L 6-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .239 |
| 2026-08-28 | Tampa Bay Rays | L 4-9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .241 |
| 2026-08-26 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 3-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .239 |
| 2026-08-25 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .236 |
| 2026-08-24 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .238 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 142 team games; 60 in 2001