87% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Jackson Merrill sits 40th of 49 in OPS among qualified hitters on this site's tracked board
No MLB leaderboard lead, no live chase and no milestone in range — a .248 average; 24 home runs; 79 RBI; 26 stolen bases. The numbers below are the whole story, and a season that does not make a claim is a perfectly normal thing for a big-league season to be.
Same case as last night, moved numbers: batting average went from .245 to .248 since September 10.
The case in 30 seconds
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 40th of 49 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .248 .732 OPS, 24 home runs, 79 RBI and 26 stolen bases over 144 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
No thesis is not the same as no value. This page reports what cleared its evidence bar; a season can matter to a team in ways a leaderboard does not record.
What to watch next
Next up: at San Francisco Giants.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 40th of 49 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .732 OPS, 24 home runs, 79 RBI and 26 stolen bases over 144 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
3-for-5
W 7-5 vs San Francisco Giants · 2026-09-11
carries a .248 average into today
What to watch next
at San Francisco Giants
Oracle Park · 4:05 p.m. ET
Facing Cesar Perdomo
Jackson Merrill faces a left-hander in Cesar Perdomo. He is hitting .278 with 4 home runs in 162 at-bats against left-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 395 | .235 | 20 | 54 | .739 |
| vs LHP | 162 | .278 | 4 | 25 | .716 |
| Home | 277 | .253 | 10 | 43 | .746 |
| Away | 280 | .243 | 14 | 36 | .719 |
| Day | 207 | .285 | 13 | 33 | .882 |
| Night | 350 | .226 | 11 | 46 | .643 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
144G
557AB
138H
.248AVG
24HR
79RBI
26SB
242B
43B
.732OPS
Chasing .400
.248Current AVG
142Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
125-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.895Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (108-for-57)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .248 | .248 | 1.351 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .248 | .248 | 1.684 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .248 | .248 | 1.895 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .248 | .248 | 1.965 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .248 | .248 | 2.614 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 24 | 26 | 26 in 15 g · 1 per 2.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 24 | 26 | 36 in 15 g · 1 per 1.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 24 | 26 | 38 in 15 g · 1 per 1.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 24 | 26 | 46 in 15 g · 1 per 1.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 24 | 26 | 49 in 15 g · 1 per 1.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 138 | 152 | 62 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 138 | 152 | 87 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 138 | 152 | 112 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 138 | 152 | 124 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 26 | 29 | 24 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 26 | 29 | 54 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 26 | 29 | 74 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 26 | 29 | 104 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 24 | 26 | 26 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 24 | 26 | 36 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 24 | 26 | 43 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 4 | 4 | 16 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 4 | 4 | 21 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 4 | 4 | 32 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 79 | 87 | 46 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 79 | 87 | 71 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 79 | 87 | 96 in 15 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 79 | 87 | 112 in 15 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 39.670 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 37.880 after regressing toward the league's 30.170 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 25.9, against a straight team-game pace of 26. Exact beta-binomial over 62 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1390); median finish 26. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | San Francisco Giants | W 7-5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .248 |
| 2026-09-09 | Washington Nationals | W 9-2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .245 |
| 2026-09-08 | Washington Nationals | W 5-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .239 |
| 2026-09-06 | New York Yankees | W 4-3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .241 |
| 2026-09-05 | New York Yankees | L 1-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .238 |
| 2026-09-04 | New York Yankees | W 3-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .240 |
| 2026-09-01 | Cincinnati Reds | L 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .241 |
| 2026-08-31 | Cincinnati Reds | W 5-0 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .242 |
| 2026-08-30 | Tampa Bay Rays | L 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .239 |
| 2026-08-29 | Tampa Bay Rays | L 6-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .239 |
Recent highlights
▶︎
Jackson Merrill's two-run home run (23)2026-09-09 · Jackson Merrill hit 2 home runs, driving in 6
▶︎
Jackson Merrill's go-ahead home run (19)2026-08-10 · Jackson Merrill's go-ahead home run in the 7th put the Padres ahead for good against the Brewers
▶︎
Jackson Merrill's walk-off two-run double2026-04-15 ·
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 147 team games; 64 in 2001