Playoff hunt
A standings table says who is ahead. It does not say who is in trouble, who is making a run, or which lead has quietly stopped being safe. Every number here is measured against this site's own archive — 14 days back, night by night — so a four-game gap that was nine a fortnight ago reads as the story it is.
Tonight
Ranked by how much a reader should care, not by which check ran first: how tight the race is, how far the ground moved, and how little season is left.
The Pirates have cut the gap to the last NL wild card place from seven and a half games to five games since August 22.
The Tigers have been better than 65-77 looks: their runs scored and allowed are those of a 76-win club.
The Angels have been better than 54-88 looks: their runs scored and allowed are those of a 63-win club.
The Reds have won more than their runs suggest — 68-74 against the 60 wins their scoring has earned.
The Rays have won more than their runs suggest — 85-57 against the 76 wins their scoring has earned.
The cut line
Every club measured against the last playoff place rather than the top of the table, because that is the position the race is actually for.
Measured at the last wild card place. The Blue Jays and the Guardians are level at the cut line.
| Club | W–L | To the cut | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYY Yankees | 81–61 | +9.5 | 0.0 |
| BOS Red Sox | 78–65 | +6.0 | -0.5 |
| TOR Blue Jays | 72–71 | — | +0.5 |
| CLE Guardians | 72–71 | — | 0.0 |
| TEX Rangers | 70–73 | -2.0 | -2.0 |
| BAL Orioles | 69–74 | -3.0 | -2.0 |
| MIN Twins | 68–74 | -3.5 | -2.5 |
| SEA Mariners | 66–77 | -6.0 | -4.0 |
A plus sign is a club holding a place. Division leaders are not on this ladder — they are already in.
Measured at the last wild card place. The D-backs hold it by half a game.
| Club | W–L | To the cut | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHC Cubs | 81–62 | +6.0 | +2.0 |
| PHI Phillies | 80–62 | +5.5 | +3.5 |
| AZ D-backs | 75–68 | — | +2.0 |
| SD Padres | 74–68 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| STL Cardinals | 71–72 | -4.0 | +0.5 |
| MIA Marlins | 71–72 | -4.0 | 0.0 |
| PIT Pirates | 70–73 | -5.0 | +2.5 |
A plus sign is a club holding a place. Division leaders are not on this ladder — they are already in.
Six races
Sorted by compression. A division nobody is within six games of scores near zero however many clubs it has.
The White Sox lead by two and a half games.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| CWS White Sox | 74–68 | — | 0.0 |
| CLE Guardians | 72–71 | 2.5 | +1.0 |
| MIN Twins | 68–74 | 6.0 | -1.5 |
| DET Tigers | 65–77 | 9.0 | — |
| KC Royals | 63–80 | 11.5 | — |
The Astros lead by three games.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU Astros | 73–70 | — | 0.0 |
| TEX Rangers | 70–73 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| SEA Mariners | 66–77 | 7.0 | — |
| ATH Athletics | 57–86 | 16.0 | — |
| LAA Angels | 54–88 | 18.5 | — |
The Rays lead by four games.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB Rays | 85–57 | — | 0.0 |
| NYY Yankees | 81–61 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| BOS Red Sox | 78–65 | 7.5 | — |
| TOR Blue Jays | 72–71 | 13.5 | — |
| BAL Orioles | 69–74 | 16.5 | — |
The Braves lead by four games.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL Braves | 84–58 | — | 0.0 |
| PHI Phillies | 80–62 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| MIA Marlins | 71–72 | 13.5 | — |
| WSH Nationals | 67–77 | 18.0 | — |
| NYM Mets | 64–78 | 20.0 | — |
The Brewers lead by seven games.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL Brewers | 88–55 | — | 0.0 |
| CHC Cubs | 81–62 | 7.0 | — |
| STL Cardinals | 71–72 | 17.0 | — |
| PIT Pirates | 70–73 | 18.0 | — |
| CIN Reds | 68–74 | 19.5 | — |
The Dodgers lead by ten and a half games.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAD Dodgers | 85–57 | — | 0.0 |
| AZ D-backs | 75–68 | 10.5 | — |
| SD Padres | 74–68 | 11.0 | — |
| SF Giants | 59–84 | 26.5 | — |
| COL Rockies | 55–87 | 30.0 | — |
Making a move
| Club | Race | Gained | Then → now |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | NL Wild Card | +3.5 | two games clear → five and a half games clear |
| PIT | NL Wild Card | +2.5 | seven and a half games back → five games back |
Ground gained on the position that decides the race, since August 22. A club out of reach of that position is not listed however much it has won.
Losing ground
| Club | Race | Lost | Then → now |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | AL Wild Card | -4.0 | two games back → six games back |
| MIN | AL Wild Card | -2.5 | one game back → three and a half games back |
A club that has lost ground is not the absence of one that has gained it, and a page showing only the risers reads as if nothing ever goes wrong.
Runs against wins
Expected wins from runs scored and allowed, at the exponent fitted on 3,217 team-seasons. This is a description of what has already happened and not a forecast: a club is not owed the wins it has not got.
| Club | Record | Runs say | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET Tigers | 65–77 | 76–66 | 11.5 the record understates them |
| LAA Angels | 54–88 | 63–79 | 9.0 the record understates them |
| CIN Reds | 68–74 | 60–82 | 7.9 the record flatters them |
| TB Rays | 85–57 | 76–66 | 8.8 the record flatters them |
Method
The standard formula, halves included: a club that has played fewer games can trail by half a game, and rounding that away reports a race as tied when it is not.
Wild card numbers are measured at the last playoff place, not the first. A league whose top wild card leads by five and whose third is level with four clubs is a tight race, and a number anchored at the front would call it comfortable.
0–100, from how close the nearest real challenger is, how many clubs are stacked behind them, and how little season is left. A gap of zero in April is a real race and not a decided one.
Ground gained on that position since the archive's night nearest 14 days ago. A window that predates the archive is left blank rather than shown as no movement.
remaining strength of schedule and remaining head-to-head games are the two inputs that would most improve every number above, and neither is derivable from what this site holds — there is no forward schedule here. A strength of schedule computed from games already played would be a different number wearing the right name, so it is absent and said to be absent rather than quietly implied.