Historic Chases · 2026-04-29 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-04-29

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Ernie Clement hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 30 ▶︎ watch; Nick Castellanos hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 19 ▶︎ watch.

Taylor Ward has 13 doubles — projecting to 73, +1 vs Earl Webb's 67 pace. That pace would be the most doubles in any season since 1901. Needs 37 more to reach 50.

Ildemaro Vargas sits at .372 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

History movers: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Batting Average: record 0.406 (Ted Williams) · Yordan Alvarez — Triple Crown (MLB).

Lines of the night: Miguel Andujar hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 20 ▶︎ watch; Will Benson hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 23 ▶︎ watch.

The so-what: through 31 team games, Aaron Judge sits 2 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (14 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

MUST TRACK: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 9 HR / 10 SB, projecting to 47/52. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Every game matters from here.

The .400 burndown: Ildemaro Vargas carries a .372 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .406 clip the rest of the way (160-for-394). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .403; an 0-for-4 raises it to .410.

On this date in 2022, 5 Mets pitchers combined for a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 9 HR / 10 SB — 21 homers short and 20 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 47/52.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Aaron Judge versus the great home-run seasons

Aaron Judge has 12 home runs through 31 team games, 2 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (14). Comparable chases finished with a median of 37; 8.2% reached 50 and 1.8% reached 60 (n=282).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-1 season

If Matt Olson finishes at the current projection of 68, it would be the most doubles in any season since 1901 — no season on record has finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 198 hits, set by Aubrey Huff in 2003. Chandler Simpson projects to 200 and projects to clear it by 2.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Aaron Judge is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Aaron Judge would reach at least 60 HR, and 100 RBI. Only 8 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001), Mark McGwire (1999).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400