Historic Chases · 2026-05-09 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-09

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Ernie Clement had a perfect day: 5-for-5 — a perfect 5-for-5 happens maybe 15 times a season ▶︎ watch; Kyle Stowers hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 18 ▶︎ watch.

James Wood has struck out 60 times, projecting to 243. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

Otto Lopez sits at .353 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

History movers: Matt Olson — Franchise RBI: 35 now, pace 141.8, record 135 (Eddie Mathews); Franchise Home Runs: 13 now, pace 52.6, record 51 (Andruw Jones) · Byron Buxton, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 13 now, pace 52.6, record 49 (Harmon Killebrew).

Lines of the night: Bobby Witt Jr. hit an INSIDE-THE-PARK home run — a half-dozen or so happen a season ▶︎ watch; John King earned his FIRST career save ▶︎ watch.

The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 2-for-5 last night and pushed his average up 2 points to .353. The gap to .400 is now .047.

The so-what: through 40 team games, Aaron Judge sits 3 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (18 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .353 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .416 clip the rest of the way (198-for-476). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .413; an 0-for-4 raises it to .419.

On this date in 2010, Dallas Braden of the Athletics threw a no-hitter.

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 9 HR / 14 SB — 21 homers short and 16 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 36/57.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Aaron Judge versus the great home-run seasons

Aaron Judge has 15 home runs through 40 team games, 1 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (16). Comparable chases finished with a median of 40; 11.5% reached 50 and 3.1% reached 60 (n=226).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-6 season

If Matt Olson finishes at the current projection of 61, it would rank No. 6 among all seasons since 1901 — only 5 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 221 hits, set by Juan Pierre in 2004. Otto Lopez projects to 223 and projects to clear it by 2.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Aaron Judge is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Aaron Judge would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 8 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001), Mark McGwire (1999).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400