Historic Chases · 2026-05-10 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-10

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Josh Ekness earned his FIRST career save ▶︎ watch; Kendry Rojas earned his FIRST career win ▶︎ watch.

Oneil Cruz has struck out 61 times, projecting to 241. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

Brandon Marsh sits at .353 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

History movers: Kyle Schwarber, after a two-homer night — Franchise Home Runs: 16 now, pace 63.2, record 58 (Ryan Howard); Home Runs: 16 now, pace 63, record 73 (Barry Bonds) · Matt Olson, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 14 now, pace 55.3, record 51 (Andruw Jones).

The .400 chase: Brandon Marsh went 4-for-4 last night and pushed his average up 20 points to .353. The gap to .400 is now .047.

The so-what: through 41 team games, Aaron Judge sits 2 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (18 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

MUST TRACK: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 10 HR / 15 SB, projecting to 40/59. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Every game matters from here.

The .400 burndown: Brandon Marsh carries a .353 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .417 clip the rest of the way (164-for-393). That is .005 easier than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .414; an 0-for-4 raises it to .422.

On this date in 2022, Reid Detmers of the Angels threw a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 10 HR / 15 SB — 20 homers short and 15 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 40/59.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Aaron Judge versus the great home-run seasons

Aaron Judge has 16 home runs through 41 team games, 1 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (17). Comparable chases finished with a median of 42; 16.9% reached 50 and 3.4% reached 60 (n=118).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-6 season

If Aaron Judge finishes at the current projection of 63, it would rank No. 6 among all seasons since 1901 — only 5 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Pena in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 46 and projects to tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Aaron Judge is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Aaron Judge would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 8 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001), Mark McGwire (1999).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400