No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Josh Ekness earned his first career save ▶︎ watch; Kendry Rojas earned his first career win ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-05-10 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Oneil Cruz has struck out 61 times, projecting to 241. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.
Brandon Marsh sits at .353 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.
The so-what: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 10 HR and 15 SB, projecting to 40/59. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Neither half carries it alone; the season has to finish on both.
History movers: Kyle Schwarber, after a two-homer night — Franchise Home Runs: 16 now, pace 63.2, record 58 (Ryan Howard, 2006); Home Runs: 16 now, pace 63, record 73 (Barry Bonds, 2001).
Also last night: Brandon Marsh — a bench bat with 37 games played — went a perfect 4-for-4 ▶︎ watch; Brayan Rocchio — a bench bat with 40 games played — went a perfect 4-for-4 ▶︎ watch.
The .400 chase: Brandon Marsh went 4-for-4 last night and pushed his average up 20 points to .353. That is 133 at-bats over 41 team games — still short of the sample a .400 line is measured over, and small enough that one 0-for-4 would take 10 points off it. The gap to .400 goes up once the sample can carry it.
Sweep watch: the Brewers swept the Yankees (3 games).
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Aaron Judge versus the great home-run seasons
Aaron Judge has 16 home runs through 41 team games, 1 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (17). Comparable chases finished with a median of 42 (95% CI 41-44); 17.2% reached 50 (11.4-25.1% at 95% confidence), from 116 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-6 season
If Aaron Judge finishes at the current projection of 63, it would rank No. 6 among all seasons since 1901 — only 5 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Peña in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 46 and would tie it.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Aaron Judge is building a rare combination
At his current pace, Aaron Judge would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.353AVG
11 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
LONG SHOT
Home Run Leader
16HR
63 projected HR · 1 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
55H
217 projected H · 11 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
17SB
67 projected SB · 16 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
152B
59 projected 2B · 2 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
33B
12 projected 3B · 6 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.296AVG · 14 HR · 36 RBI
.057 back AVG, 2 back HR, none higher RBI full race on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
10/15HR/SB
40/59 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 8 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Braves
28W
111 projected wins · record 116
NEAR PACE
Run Differential Leader
Braves
+87
+344 projected run differential