Historic Chases · 2026-07-04 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-04

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Alex Jackson hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 19 ▶︎ watch; Keider Montero earned his FIRST career save ▶︎ watch.

Kyle Schwarber has struck out 130 times, projecting to 237. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (30) — one every 10.7 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

History movers: Yordan Alvarez, after a two-homer night — Triple Crown (MLB); Franchise Home Runs: 29 now, pace 51.6, record 47 (Jeff Bagwell) · Junior Caminero, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 26 now, pace 49, record 46 (Carlos Pena).

Lines of the night: JR Ritchie earned his FIRST career save ▶︎ watch.

The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 3-for-5 last night and pushed his average up 4 points to .341. The gap to .400 is now .059.

The so-what: through 89 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 10 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (40 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .341 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .475 clip the rest of the way (134-for-282). That is .002 easier than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .471; an 0-for-4 raises it to .482.

On this date in 1983, Dave Righetti of the Yankees threw a no-hitter.

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 19 HR / 21 SB — 11 homers short and 9 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 35/38.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 30 home runs through 89 team games, 10 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (40). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 24.8% reached 50 and 3.8% reached 60 (n=105).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-22 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 55, it would rank No. 22 among all seasons since 1901 — only 21 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 49 home runs, set by Larry Walker in 1997. Hunter Goodman projects to 49 and projects to tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Mark Trumbo's 2016 (75% similarity). The match is strongest in average, speed, runs; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400