Historic Chases · 2026-05-03 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-03

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Gabriel Moreno hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 15 ▶︎ watch.

Matt Olson has 15 doubles — projecting to 69, +0 vs Earl Webb's 67 pace. That pace would be the most doubles in any season since 1901. Needs 35 more to reach 50.

Ildemaro Vargas sits at .382 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

History movers: Drake Baldwin — Franchise RBI: 29 now, pace 134.2, record 135 (Eddie Mathews); RBI: 29 now, pace 134, record 191 (Hack Wilson) · Phillies — Run Differential: pace -205, record -349 (Boston Red Sox).

The .400 chase: Ildemaro Vargas went 1-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 6 points to .382. The gap to .400 is now .018.

The so-what: through 34 team games, Aaron Judge sits 2 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (15 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

MUST TRACK: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 9 HR / 11 SB, projecting to 42/51. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Every game matters from here.

The .400 burndown: Ildemaro Vargas carries a .382 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .406 clip the rest of the way (162-for-399). That is .001 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .403; an 0-for-4 raises it to .410.

On this date in 2011, Francisco Liriano of the Twins threw a no-hitter.

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 9 HR / 11 SB — 21 homers short and 19 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 42/51.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Aaron Judge versus the great home-run seasons

Aaron Judge has 13 home runs through 34 team games, 1 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (14). Comparable chases finished with a median of 37; 8.3% reached 50 and 2.2% reached 60 (n=324).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-1 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 250, it would be the most batter strikeouts in any season since 1901 — no season on record has finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 51 home runs, set by Andruw Jones in 2005. Matt Olson projects to 51 and projects to tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Aaron Judge is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Aaron Judge would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 8 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001), Mark McGwire (1999).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400