Historic Chases · 2026-05-12 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-12

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Paul Skenes carried a NO-HITTER into the 7th — broken up by a single ▶︎ watch; Mike Yastrzemski hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 39 ▶︎ watch.

Munetaka Murakami has struck out 63 times, projecting to 249. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 3rd in MLB in home runs (15) — one every 9.7 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

Brandon Marsh sits at .350 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

History movers: Liam Hicks — Franchise RBI: 35 now, pace 135, record 132 (Giancarlo Stanton) · Otto Lopez — Batting Average: record 0.406 (Ted Williams); Hits: 55 now, pace 212, record 262 (Ichiro Suzuki).

Lines of the night: Joey Ortiz hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 32 ▶︎ watch.

The .400 chase: Brandon Marsh went 1-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 3 points to .350. The gap to .400 is now .050.

The so-what: through 42 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 2 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (19 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Brandon Marsh carries a .350 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .419 clip the rest of the way (164-for-391). That is .002 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .416; an 0-for-4 raises it to .424.

On this date in 2001, A.J. Burnett of the Marlins threw a no-hitter (one of 3 thrown on this date).

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 10 HR / 15 SB — 20 homers short and 15 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 39/58.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 17 home runs through 42 team games, 3 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (20). Comparable chases finished with a median of 43; 19.4% reached 50 and 4.2% reached 60 (n=72).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-3 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 66, it would rank No. 3 among all seasons since 1901 — only 2 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 46 and projects to tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 100 RBI. Only 8 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001), Mark McGwire (1999).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400