Historic Chases · 2026-05-13 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-13

Daulton Varsho hit a WALK-OFF GRAND SLAM — happens only a handful of times a season ▶︎ watch.

James Wood has struck out 64 times, projecting to 241. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

History movers: Byron Buxton, after a two-homer night — Franchise Home Runs: 15 now, pace 56.5, record 49 (Harmon Killebrew) · Liam Hicks — Franchise RBI: 38 now, pace 143.2, record 132 (Giancarlo Stanton).

Lines of the night: Santiago Espinal hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 21 ▶︎ watch.

The .400 chase: Brandon Marsh went 0-for-3 last night and saw his average slip 7 points to .343. The gap to .400 is now .057.

The so-what: through 43 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 2 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (19 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Brandon Marsh carries a .343 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .421 clip the rest of the way (163-for-387). That is .002 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .418; an 0-for-4 raises it to .426.

On this date in 2007, Fred Lewis hit for the cycle.

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 10 HR / 15 SB — 20 homers short and 15 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 38/57.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 17 home runs through 43 team games, 5 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (22). Comparable chases finished with a median of 42; 15.4% reached 50 and 3.5% reached 60 (n=143).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-5 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 64, it would rank No. 5 among all seasons since 1901 — only 4 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 48 and projects to clear it by 1.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 100 RBI. Only 8 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001), Mark McGwire (1999).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400