Historic Chases · 2026-05-14 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-14

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Mitch Garver hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 21 ▶︎ watch; Jung Hoo Lee hit an INSIDE-THE-PARK home run — a half-dozen or so happen a season ▶︎ watch.

James Wood has struck out 66 times, projecting to 243. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

History movers: CJ Abrams — Franchise RBI: 36 now, pace 132.5, record 131 (Vladimir Guerrero) · Matt Olson — Franchise RBI: 37 now, pace 136.2, record 135 (Eddie Mathews); Doubles: 15 now, pace 55, record 67 (Earl Webb).

The .400 chase: Brandon Marsh went 1-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 3 points to .340. The gap to .400 is now .060.

The so-what: through 44 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 2 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (20 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Brandon Marsh carries a .340 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .422 clip the rest of the way (163-for-386). That is .001 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .419; an 0-for-4 raises it to .427.

On this date in 1996, Dwight Gooden of the Yankees threw a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 10 HR / 15 SB — 20 homers short and 15 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 37/55.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 18 home runs through 44 team games, 5 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (23). Comparable chases finished with a median of 42; 18.6% reached 50 and 4.1% reached 60 (n=97).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-3 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 66, it would rank No. 3 among all seasons since 1901 — only 2 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 135 RBI, set by Eddie Mathews in 1953. Matt Olson projects to 136 and projects to clear it by 1.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 8 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001), Mark McGwire (1999).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400