Historic Chases · 2026-05-17 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-17

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Colton Cowser hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 37 ▶︎ watch; Tristan Peters hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 43 ▶︎ watch.

Oneil Cruz has struck out 72 times, projecting to 248. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

History movers: Jonathan Aranda — Franchise RBI: 34 now, pace 122.4, record 121 (Carlos Pena) · Angels — Run Differential: pace -207, record -349 (Boston Red Sox).

Lines of the night: Edgar Quero hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 32 ▶︎ watch; Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 21 ▶︎ watch.

The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 2-for-4 last night and pushed his average up 3 points to .344. The gap to .400 is now .056.

The so-what: through 47 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 1 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (21 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .344 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .424 clip the rest of the way (190-for-448). That is .001 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .421; an 0-for-4 raises it to .428.

On this date in 1998, David Wells of the Yankees threw a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 10 HR / 16 SB — 20 homers short and 14 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 34/55.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 20 home runs through 47 team games, 5 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (25). Comparable chases finished with a median of 48; 31% reached 50 and 3.4% reached 60 (n=29).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-3 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 69, it would rank No. 3 among all seasons since 1901 — only 2 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 131 RBI, set by Vladimir Guerrero in 1999. CJ Abrams projects to 131 and projects to tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 8 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001), Mark McGwire (1999).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400