Historic Chases · 2026-05-17 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-17

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Colton Cowser hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 37 ▶︎ watch; Tristan Peters hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 43 ▶︎ watch.

Oneil Cruz has struck out 72 times, projecting to 248. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 2-for-4 last night and pushed his average up 3 points to .344. That is 183 at-bats over 47 team games — still short of the sample a .400 line is measured over, and small enough that one 0-for-4 would take 7 points off it. The gap to .400 goes up once the sample can carry it.

Lines of the night: Edgar Quero hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 32 ▶︎ watch; Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 21 ▶︎ watch.

History movers: Jonathan Aranda — Franchise RBI: 34 now, pace 122.4, record 121 (Carlos Peña, 2007).

Sweep watch: the Phillies swept the Pirates (3 games) — their 2nd sweep in 20 days. 2 other clubs were swept the same night.

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 20 home runs through 47 team games, a 69-homer pace — 5 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (25 of his eventual 73). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 20 home runs through 47 team games, 5 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (25). Comparable chases finished with a median of 48 (95% CI 42-50); 32.1% reached 50 (17.9-50.7% at 95% confidence), from 28 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-3 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 69, it would rank No. 3 among all seasons since 1901 — only 2 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 131 RBI, set by Vladimir Guerrero in 1999. CJ Abrams projects to 131 and would tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Only X seasons ever

Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400