No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Blake Perkins hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 42 ▶︎ watch; Willi Castro drove in 7 runs — 7+ RBI nights happen about 15 times a season ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-06-14 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 104 times, projecting to 237. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (24) — one every 10.8 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
History movers: Yordan Alvarez — Triple Crown (MLB) · Rockies — Run Differential: pace -202, record -349 (Boston Red Sox); Team Losses: pace 101, record 121 (Chicago White Sox).
Lines of the night: Hunter Goodman went 5-for-6 — 5-hit games happen a couple dozen times a season ▶︎ watch; Eiberson Castellano earned his FIRST career save ▶︎ watch; Donovan Walton hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 18 ▶︎ watch; Ben Williamson hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 51 ▶︎ watch.
Milestones reached last night: James Wood reached 20 HR; Hunter Goodman reached 20 HR.
The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 1-for-5 last night and saw his average slip 2 points to .343. The gap to .400 is now .057.
The so-what: through 73 team games, Yordan Alvarez sits 9 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (33 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .343 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .446 clip the rest of the way (158-for-354). That is .003 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .443; an 0-for-4 raises it to .451.
On this date in 2019, Jake Bauers hit for the cycle.
30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 14 HR / 21 SB — 16 homers short and 9 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 32/47.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons
Yordan Alvarez has 24 home runs through 73 team games, 14 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (38). Comparable chases finished with a median of 42; 12.6% reached 50 and 1.6% reached 60 (n=191).
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-22 season
If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 55, it would rank No. 22 among all seasons since 1901 — only 21 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 49 home runs, set by Harmon Killebrew in 1964. Byron Buxton projects to 49 and projects to tie it.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021Yordan Alvarez is building a rare combination
At his current pace, Yordan Alvarez would reach at least .320 AVG, 50 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 12 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Luis Gonzalez (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001).
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021Closest to .400
.343AVG
28 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
LONG SHOT
Home Run Leader
24HR
53 projected HR · 9 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
97H
218 projected H · 19 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
26SB
58 projected SB · 32 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
212B
47 projected 2B · 9 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
83B
18 projected 3B · 8 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.326· 24 HR · 54 RBI
3 / 1 / 3 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
14/21HR/SB
32/47 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 3 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Braves
46W
105 projected wins · record 116
LONG SHOT
Run Differential Leader
Dodgers
+141
+317 projected run differential