Historic Chases · 2026-07-05

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-05

History movers: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — Franchise Home Runs: 29 now, pace 50.5, record 47 (Jeff Bagwell, 2000).

Found velocity: Erick Fedde's sinker averaged 95.7 mph — his hardest start of the season, 2.0 mph over his 15-start baseline.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 18 in 87 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 10.9% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 41 in 377 this season); Junior Caminero (TB) — walk rate up from 6.4% to 12.8% (41 in 643 plate appearances in 2025, 49 in 383 this season). 3 of 331 rate comparisons across 64 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Milestones reached last night: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) reached 30 SB.

Sweep watch: the Marlins swept the Athletics (3 games) — their 3rd sweep in 27 days. 1 other club was swept the same night.

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has 30 home runs through 91 team games, a 53-homer pace — 10 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (40 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 30 home runs through 91 team games, 10 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (40). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46 (95% CI 44-47); 25% reached 50 (17.7-34.1% at 95% confidence), from 104 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play
Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Marlins' single-season record is 221 hits, set by Juan Pierre in 2004. Otto Lopez projects to 219 and would finish 2 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Mark Trumbo's 2016 (76% similarity). The match is strongest in speed, average, runs; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Closest to .400
Otto Lopez headshot
Otto Lopez MIA
.346AVG
33 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
EXTREME
Home Run Leader
Kyle Schwarber headshot
Kyle Schwarber PHI
30HR
53 projected HR · 10 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
Otto Lopez headshot
Otto Lopez MIA
123H
219 projected H · 24 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
Nasim Nuñez headshot
Nasim Nuñez WSH
33SB
58 projected SB · 41 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
Otto Lopez headshot
Otto Lopez MIA
252B
45 projected 2B · 13 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
Corbin Carroll headshot
Corbin Carroll AZ
103B
18 projected 3B · 10 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Strikeout Leader
Jacob Misiorowski headshot
Jacob Misiorowski MIL
156K
284 projected K · record 383 (Nolan Ryan)
EXTREME
ERA Leader
Jacob Misiorowski headshot
Jacob Misiorowski MIL
1.47ERA
104.0 IP · chasing a sub-2.00 finish
ON PACE
Triple Crown Watch (AL)
Yordan Alvarez headshot
Yordan Alvarez HOU
.318AVG · 29 HR · 67 RBI
none higher AVG, none higher HR, none higher RBI full race on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
Pete Crow-Armstrong headshot
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC
19/23HR/SB
34/41 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 1 other in the hunt
ON PACE
Saves Leader
Cade SmithCLE
26SV
46 projected SV · record 62
EXTREME
Wins Leader (Team)
DodgersLAD
59W
105 projected wins · record 116
LONG SHOT
Run Differential Leader
DodgersLAD
+163
+290 projected run differential