Historic Chases · 2026-07-07

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-07

Sweep watch: the Brewers swept the Cardinals (3 games) — their 2nd sweep in 16 days.

Also last night: The Kansas City Royals came back from 5 runs down to win 16-12, and the New York Mets blew a 5-run lead.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 19 in 88 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 10.7% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 41 in 382 this season). 2 of 333 rate comparisons across 65 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

History movers: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — Triple Crown (AL).

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has 31 home runs through 92 team games, a 55-homer pace — 9 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (40 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 31 home runs through 92 team games, 9 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (40). Comparable chases finished with a median of 47 (95% CI 45-49); 34.2% reached 50 (24.7-45.2% at 95% confidence), from 79 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Marlins' single-season record is 221 hits, set by Juan Pierre in 2004. Otto Lopez projects to 218 and would finish 3 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Mark Trumbo's 2016 (75% similarity). The match is strongest in average, speed, runs; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400