The All-Star break: baseball pauses, the chases don't. The board below is exactly where the first half left it — every number here is what the second half has to answer.
Historic Chases · 2026-07-14 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.6% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 47 in 405 this season); Junior Caminero — walk rate up from 6.4% to 13.0% (41 in 643 plate appearances in 2025, 53 in 408 this season). 2 of 281 rate comparisons across 47 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 32 home runs through 97 team games, a 53-homer pace — 10 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (42 of his eventual 73). That gap is the whole story: it closes, or the chase does.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 32 home runs through 97 team games, 10 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (42). Comparable chases finished with a median of 47 (95% CI 45-48); 28.2% reached 50 (19.8-38.6% at 95% confidence), from 85 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-20 season
If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 149, it would rank No. 20 among all seasons since 1901 — only 19 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 47 and would clear it by 1.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Mark Trumbo's 2016 (78% similarity). The match is strongest in runs, speed, average; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.334AVG
42 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
EXTREME
Home Run Leader
32HR
53 projected HR · 10 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
127H
212 projected H · 30 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
34SB
57 projected SB · 44 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
262B
43 projected 2B · 14 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
103B
17 projected 3B · 11 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.294AVG · 22 HR · 74 RBI
.040 back AVG, 10 back HR, none higher RBI full race on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
21/24HR/SB
35/40 projected HR/SB · team-game pace
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Dodgers
61W
102 projected wins · record 116
LONG SHOT
Run Differential Leader
Dodgers
+149
+249 projected run differential